- Glassnode data shows XRP has surged 500% in nine months, with 93.92% of tokens profitable.
- NUPL data highlights increased risk, showing patterns that have previously preceded major downturns.
- Some forecasts still see XRP reaching US$6.50 (AU$9.98) in the months ahead.
XRP’s price has surged to US$3.11 (AU$4.77), putting 93.92% of its circulating supply into profit, according to Glassnode data. The rally, which began from below US$0.40 (AU$0.61) nine months ago, marks a 500% increase. However, analysts caution that similar levels of profitability have previously signalled significant downturns.
In January 2018, more than 90% of XRP holders were in profit as the price approached US$3.30 (AU$5.06) before plunging 95%. A comparable situation unfolded in April 2021, when profitability again exceeded 90% near US$1.95 (AU$2.99), preceding an 85% retracement.
Further risk signals are coming from Glassnode’s Net Unrealised Profit/Loss (NUPL), which tracks unrealised gains against losses. The indicator has entered the “belief–denial” zone, the same range observed at major peaks in 2017 and 2021, both of which were followed by severe downturns.
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Price Pattern Points to Volatility
XRP is currently hovering near US$3.05 (AU$4.68), where it has been holding a key support level. If this level fails, analysts warn of a potential slide to US$2.39 (AU$3.67), representing a 23.5% decline. On the other hand, a decisive breakout above resistance could see renewed bullish momentum, with price targets extending as high as US$6 (AU$9.21).
Market sentiment remains divided. Some investors remain optimistic, pointing to whale activity including a recent 120-million XRP purchase that suggests long-term confidence. Analysts also highlight potential gains should the token break above resistance levels at US$3.37 (AU$5.17) and US$3.50 (AU$5.37), which could trigger moves toward US$4 (AU$6.14) and beyond.
Independent forecasts reinforce these projections. Rekt Fencer, founder of X DAO, expects XRP to trade between US$5.20 (AU$7.98) and US$6.50 (AU$9.98) within three to six months, potentially pushing its market capitalisation close to US$400 billion (AU$613.8 billion).
Despite the optimism, past trends suggest caution may be warranted, as prior instances of overwhelming profitability have often been followed by dramatic corrections.
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