One analyst is arguing that XRP could fall below $1 within five years — a prediction that contrasts sharply with the token’s historical price action during previous bull and bear cycles.
The argument, however, rests on what the analyst says are catalysts that XRP supporters expected to push the price much higher, but which ultimately faded.
Catalysts Have Come And Gone
Motley Fool analyst Johnny Rice says several of the “big” events that bullish investors pointed to have already come and gone. In his view, those moments briefly lifted sentiment and price, but the token later slipped back toward levels that look closer to where it started rather than sustaining a long-term breakout.
Rice points first to the settlement between the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Ripple Labs, which provided significant clarity for the token. The resolution helped unlock momentum, but Rice says it wasn’t enough to create durable demand.
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He also highlights the launch of spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs). In the early period, this helped drive a surge in interest—Rice notes that total investment hit about $1.6 billion. But he says that initial enthusiasm proved short-lived.
Rice’s assessment also frames XRP’s performance against recent price history. He notes that the altcoin is down more than 60% from its July high of around $3.65.
He adds that the token is also trading well below $2 before the SEC dropped its lawsuit, suggesting that even after the legal overhang was removed, the market did not sustain the kind of upside many bulls had forecast.
XRP Outlook Under $1
Rice says one of the central narratives among bulls has been that financial institutions would need XRP to move value across borders. The argument is that banks’ cross-border activity could translate into stronger, ongoing demand for the token if adoption keeps expanding.
The logic is that Ripple’s technology converts one currency into XRP—the bridge asset—then converts XRP into the destination currency. In that framework, broader bank adoption should translate into more XRP demand, and, ultimately, higher prices.
Rice says that thesis has not clearly materialized in a way that supports the bullish price targets. He argues that even though adoption of Ripple’s payments platform continues to grow, the XRP price hasn’t followed in proportion.
The analyst describes this disconnect as something that has accelerated over the past year, and he explains why demand for cross-border payments may be weaker than many investors assumed.
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The central issue, in his view, is that Ripple’s stablecoin is “undercutting XRP” demand as the bridge asset. If banks have a more attractive alternative for use in cross-border transfers—specifically Ripple’s own stablecoin, RLUSD—then the “bridge through XRP” demand mechanism becomes less potent.
Rice’s point is not simply that Ripple’s business is doing better or worse, but that the source of real incremental demand for XRP may be eroding as RLUSD offers banks another option for bridging value.
The analyst says he believes Ripple is building a thriving payments business and that five years from now it may continue expanding its footprint in the industry.
But his bottom-line forecast remains bearish: he expects XRP to end up below $1, far from the higher price targets often promoted around the idea of XRP becoming the key banking bridge asset.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
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