Why 2025 Could Shatter Records – If Politics Don’t Derail It

Initiatives to establish Bitcoin reserves are seeing mixed results at the state and national levels. US State New Hampshire just approved a reserve while the UK said it’s not for them. With this in mind, Bitwise’s Matt Hougan, the asset manager’s Chief Investment Officer, says he’s increasingly aware of the damage politicians can do to the crypto industry.

While Hougan remains optimistic for a Bitcoin (BTC) price tag of US$200k (AU$308k) by the year’s end, he’s also worried politicos “could derail crypto”.

Related: UK Says No to Bitcoin Reserve, Yet Stage Set for New Highs After April Surge

US Election Largely Helped Crypto Move Forward, Says Analyst

In a recent analysis, Hougan points to the good things that have happened in the US post-election: Crypto markets surged following Trump’s re-election on hopes of a friendlier regulatory climate.

In its first 100 days, the administration has established a strategic bitcoin reserve (though hasn’t made clear how, or even if, new assets will be bought), declared digital assets a national priority, rolled back restrictive SEC policies including SAB 121, ended banking crackdowns on crypto firms and installed key pro-crypto figures like Paul Atkins at the SEC and David Sacks as the White House’s crypto and AI czar.

These decisions are mostly done through executive orders, though, and as such “they could easily be reversed by future administrations”, Hougan says.

That’s not unreasonable, since Democrats have just walked out from joint talks about crypto over concerns of increasing corruption under the Trump administration.

Read more: Bitcoin Reserve Bills Face Setbacks as Florida Joins Growing List of Rejecting States

Hougan: Congress Needs to Move to Solidify US Crypto Reg

Hougan believes that the US Congress needs to come together and establish clear and future-proofed crypto regulation:

To move crypto forward, we need Congress to pass legislation enshrining crypto’s progress in law. Congress passing at least one crypto bill would show that Democrats and Republicans can align on crypto and make it more difficult for future regimes to undo progress.

Matt Hougan, Bitwise CIO

The CIO also admits he overestimated what would happen once a crypto-friendly president comes into the White House. He said he thought that 2025 would be a “slam dunk” for the industry and that “Congress would rapidly pass stablecoin legislation”, which the Dems seem to be opposing.

Recall that Trump-backed World Liberty Financial (WLF) is involved in a number of questionable ventures. There’s the TRUMP memecoin of course, Trump crypto dinners and a WLF stablecoin, called USD1.

It was also revealed that an Abu Dhabi investment firm would be contributing up to US$2 billion (AU$3.08 billion) to USD1 and WLF.

Dems Say No to Bill, Passing Still Possible?

This has led to some Democrats’ objection, with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer urging his colleagues to not vote for the GENIUS Act, the stablecoin bill.

The bill will be voted on Thursday and needs 60 votes to pass. Hougan still thinks, despite all the controversy, that it will pass.

He suggests that stablecoins are too important to use them for political bickering, and that their benefits are clear, especially “to America, the dollar, merchants, entrepreneurs, and others”.

Hougan says the coming days will be crucial for crypto, so he recommends keeping a close eye on US politics.

The next few days and weeks will be fraught. If legislation fizzles, this could be a challenging summer for crypto. But if Washington can get its act together, I think the bull market will be unstoppable. In either event: Keep your eye on Washington.

Matt Hougan, Bitwise CIO

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