What The Crypto Market Can Expect

As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets today, the crypto market’s focus is on the Federal Reserve’s forthcoming announcements. Scheduled for 2:00 PM ET are both the Fed Interest Rate Decision and the FOMC Statement, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference following at 2:30 PM ET. These events are poised to have significant implications for cryptocurrencies and broader financial markets.

What The Crypto Market Can Expect

Market participants overwhelmingly anticipate a rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, 97.5% expect the Federal Reserve to implement a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut. This expectation aligns with recent economic indicators and reflects a consensus that the Fed will continue its cautious monetary easing.

“The Federal Reserve is expected to cut the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points at the November 7 meeting. This aligns with market expectations and follows a weaker-than-expected nonfarm payroll report,” Althea Spinozzi, Head of Fixed Income Strategy at Saxo Bank, notes.

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The Fed is likely to maintain a measured approach, emphasizing gradual rate cuts over abrupt policy shifts. Chair Powell is expected to underscore a data-dependent and restrained policy stance, focusing on the nuanced dynamics of the current economic landscape. Spinozzi adds, “The Fed is likely to continue its measured approach, emphasizing gradual rate cuts rather than drastic policy shifts. Chair Jerome Powell is expected to highlight a data-dependent and restrained policy stance.”

While headline inflation appears to be easing, core components suggest persistent pressures. The overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.4% year-over-year in September, the lowest since February 2021. However, critical sectors like shelter and services continue to see elevated prices. Shelter prices are up 4.9% year-over-year, and services excluding energy rose by 4.7%.

“The core PCE inflation rate—a key Fed measure—has stabilized at an annualized 2.3% over both three- and six-month averages but continues to run above the Fed’s 2% target,” Spinozzi highlights. Persistent inflation in these sectors could exert upward pressure on overall inflation, complicating the Fed’s efforts to achieve its target.

The labor market remains robust despite recent disruptions from hurricanes and strikes. The unemployment rate stands firm at 4.1%, and temporary layoffs have declined in October. Wage growth is showing signs of cooling; the Employment Cost Index (ECI) for Q3 surprised to the downside at 0.8% quarter-over-quarter, the softest since Q2 2021. Year-over-year, the ECI remains elevated at 3.9%, significantly above the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) average of 2.16%. Weekly jobless claims are also well below the post-GFC average, indicating sustained labor market strength.

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Overall, the US economy has exhibited unexpected robustness. Third-quarter GDP grew by 2.8% annualized, and personal consumption rose by 3.7%, the strongest quarter since early 2023. However, concerns about the sustainability of this growth persist. Real disposable income has softened, and household savings are declining, potentially limiting future consumer spending.

Adding to the complexity is the US presidential election. The victory by Donald Trump could significantly influence fiscal policies, thereby impacting the Fed’s longer-term rate path. “The Federal Reserve will be mindful of how its actions and commentary could influence financial markets that may already be experiencing quite volatile conditions,” James Knightley, Chief International Economist at ING, remarks.

For crypto traders, Jerome Powell’s commentary during the FOMC press conference on anticipated inflationary effects stemming from the Trump election is the key focus. Experts expect that the Trump presidency could lead to policies that underpin inflation, such as tax cuts and increased fiscal spending, potentially forcing the Fed to keep rates elevated.

Despite the political backdrop, the Fed is expected to proceed with the rate cut. ING analysts suggest, “Even after September’s 50bp rate cut, monetary policy is in restrictive territory, and the Fed has scope to keep cutting rates back to a more neutral level to give the economy a little more breathing space to continue growing strongly.”

The current target range for the Fed funds rate is 4.75% to 5%, well above the estimated “neutral” level of 3% to 3.5%. The consensus is that the Fed has room to normalize its policy, especially with the labor market cooling.

The crypto market will be closely monitoring not just the rate decision—which appears largely priced in—but also the Fed’s commentary on inflation, economic growth, and the potential impacts of the presidential election. Any indications from Chair Powell regarding future policy shifts could have significant implications for the Bitcoin and crypto markets.

At press time, Bitcoin traded at $75,080.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com