U.S. charges in Nijjar killing case lift Polymarket to 72.5% on Hormuz fees

U.S. Charges in Nijjar Assassination Probe Push Polymarket “Iran Charges Hormuz Fees by Dec. 31” Odds to 72.5%

U.S. authorities announced a sweeping set of criminal charges tied to the 2023 assassination of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada, a killing that had strained Canada-India relations. On Polymarket, traders pushed up the implied odds in the ladder market “Iran charges Hormuz fees by…?” with the top rung “December 31” priced at 72.5%.

Key Takeaways

• Polymarket’s leading rung is “Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?” at 72.5% Yes (27.5% No).
• Pricing firmed as the market moved higher, with the leading implied odds up to 72.5% from 68.0% on the latest update.
• The contract resolves by 2026-08-31 23:59 UTC, while the ladder spans deadline rungs from July 15 through December 31.

Law enforcement officials from federal, local and international agencies announced charges against the leader of an Indian criminal group in connection with the assassination in Canada of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a killing that previously strained diplomatic ties between Canada and India. U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli said the action was part of a broader operation that charged 37 alleged members of India-based transnational organized crime groups accused of crimes including kidnapping, racketeering, extortion, firearms dealing, drug trafficking and murder. Authorities said the investigation involved agencies across the United States, Canada and Europe, and that officials were still searching for fugitives in multiple regions. The charges name Lawrence Bishnoi, 33, and Satinderjeet Singh as accused organizers of Nijjar’s 2023 killing outside a temple where he served as president. Bishnoi is in custody, while Singh has not been apprehended, authorities said.

Polymarket Ladder Breakdown: $607,465 Volume as Dec. 31 Rung Leads at 72.5% (Oct. 31 68%, Aug. 31 51.5%)

Polymarket shows $607,465 in matched volume on the ladder market, with the longest-dated rung “December 31” at 72.5% Yes versus 27.5% No. Traders assign 68.0% Yes / 32.0% No to “October 31,” while “August 31” is near a coin flip at 51.5% Yes / 48.5% No. The market prices much lower odds for earlier deadlines, with “July 31” at 12.0% Yes / 88.0% No and “July 15” at 5.25% Yes / 94.75% No, indicating positioning is concentrated on later-timeline outcomes rather than near-term action.

Watch whether trading continues to migrate from the August 31 rung toward later dates, and whether volume expands beyond $607,465 as the 2026-08-31 23:59 UTC resolution approaches.

Beyond the Nijjar Case: Other High-Volume Geopolitical and Macro Polymarket Contracts Traders Are Watching

Beyond the headline contract, traders are also clustering into adjacent Iran- and Hormuz-linked markets that have drawn some of the platform’s heaviest flow. In “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?” the leading view is 86.5% No on $39,661,189 in volume, while “US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?” has December 31 leading at 42.0% on $7,786,626. Near-term shipping disruption bets remain lopsided, with “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?” priced at 95.5% No on $13,022,471, and diplomacy timing is being tested in “Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by…?” where August 15 leads at 25.0% on $1,821,438.

Odds Trend

By the Numbers

• Platform: Polymarket
• Market: Iran charges Hormuz fees by…?
• Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
• Resolution window: Aug 31, 2026 (UTC)
• Status: Active (open for trading)
• Volume: ~$607,465

Top strike rungs

+1 more strikes not shown

Related News