Researchers at the South Korean crypto exchange Bithumb have predicted that trust will return to crypto markets next year – and have outlined three key reasons shaping their thinking.
The exchange is one of the two biggest in the nation, and operates a dedicated analysis and research department named the Bithumb Economic Research Institute. The institute is charged with examining market trends.
Per the media outlet Business Post, the institute’s 2023 Cryptoasset Policy Outlook contains a number of predictions about the near future of crypto markets as politicians prepare a fresh round of regulations for the industry.
Here are the researchers’ reasons for optimism in the year ahead.
Conclusion of the Ripple Case
The researchers picked the lawsuit that has pitted Ripple against the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), as the “most noteworthy event in 2023” in the crypto scene. They explained that the United States is the “center of the crypto market.” And they pointed out that the conclusion of the case would be a pivotal moment for crypto.
Should the SEC win, the researchers predicted that a slew of high-cap tokens would fall under the SEC’s remit. The SEC, it added, was likely to be less forgiving in its approach to regulations than the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which has a “lower level of regulation.”
A win for Ripple executives would ensure that the SEC’s rules do not apply to most coins, they noted. A settlement may result in a stalemate, however.
Legislation-related Challenges in the United States
The researchers opined that it was not very “realistic” to expect Congress to pass any of the existing crypto-related bills that have been proposed to the House before the end of the current session (January 3). After this point, all existing draft bills will be repealed, they noted.
That means that legislators will essentially need to start afresh with a crypto bill in 2023. And while lawmakers will not be deterred by this, challenges will persist as the Republicans take control of the House. The Democrats will have a slender majority in the Senate following the Midterm Elections last month.
Some observers have predicted gridlocks. Others have forecasted an easier ride for the executive. But, whatever happens when lawmakers reconvene, it remains a fact that neither house is united on crypto-related policy.
Despite the challenges, the desire to regulate against a second FTX-like situation will likely remain.
The researchers opined that an American cryptoasset bill “could be passed by Congress as early as the end of 2023.”
More Regulations Coming in South Korea
While the FTX collapse is likely to become the defining watershed moment of the American crypto industry, it is an event that left most South Korean crypto firms relatively unscathed. But South Korea’s own watershed took place months before the FTX fiasco – and has been dubbed the “Terra/Luna incident.”
While the prosecution’s attempts to track down Do Kwon and arrest Terraform Labs executives have thus far borne no fruit, hundreds of angry Terra investors have demanded justice – and Seoul wants to avoid a repeat of May’s disastrous market downturn.
According to the Bithumb Economic Research Institute, regulation is incoming in South Korea as a result of the “incident.” There are currently 14 private members’ bills on the table at the National Assembly. The researchers claimed that at least two of these have a very good chance of passing.
“No matter which of the two bills passes, investor protection measures will be more stringent than before,” the researchers said.
Oh Yu-ri, the policy research team leader, was quoted as stating:
“If a reasonable regulatory framework is established [both at home and abroad], 2023 will be a year when [crypto-related] industries can recover investor confidence and lay the foundation for long-term growth.”
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