- Swissblock points to a negative divergence in Bitcoin’s price movement, suggesting an imminent pullback based on a 3-wave rally pattern.
- Bitcoin appears to be approaching the “Danger Zone” pre-halving, historically a period for retraces.
- Despite a forecasted drop to USD $58/59k analysts hint at further highs post-correction.
After the recent rally in the crypto market and a new all-time high of USD $73,750 (AUD $112,375), we have seen Bitcoin dip to USD $68,854 (AUD $104,664) overnight, only to make its way back up into the $71k (AUD $108k) range.
So, will we see more dips or will the rally continue from here on? Because, so far, every slight dip has been immediately bought up.
Related: Galaxy’s Novogratz: Bitcoin to Stay Above $50K, Bid Farewell to Lows
Analysts at Swissblock said on X (formerly Twitter):
Nothing rallies in a straight line. Not even Bitcoin. No moves without a counter-move. And a counter-move seems to be near.
SwissblockThe analysts highlight the recent rally starting late January, when Bitcoin was priced at around USD $38k (AUD $57k). It then experienced a dramatic surge, reaching approximately $72k (AUD $109.5k) by early March. Such rapid increases often invite scepticism regarding sustainability, hinting at potential reversals.
Swissblock said the negative divergence, where Bitcoin has exhibited a 3-wave rally pattern typically associated with a B-wave in technical analysis, supports this theory. This pattern often precedes a correction, suggesting that despite the recent price surge, a pullback could be imminent.
Analysts: Sentiment Indicators Running Too Hot
Adding to this analysis is the sentiment surrounding Bitcoin, which Swissblock considered “hot” at 89, based on a sentiment indicator scale.
High sentiment levels often indicate heightened market participation and enthusiasm, which, while positive, can also precede a market cooling off period. This is because extreme sentiment levels, either positive or negative, can signal an impending reversal as the market sentiment reaches unsustainable levels.
SwissblockDoes a 20% Drop Mean Bitcoin Rally is Over?
Based on these observations and analyses, Swissblock forecast a drop in Bitcoin’s price to the range of approximately USD $58k (AUD $88k) to $59k (AUD $89.7k).
Adding to the calls for a retrace is analyst RektCapital who said past pull-backs usually happened 14-28 days before halving, which Bitcoin is now 33 days away from.
Related: On the Radar – Coins to Watch
Bitcoin is slowly approaching the “Danger Zone” (orange) where historical Pre-Halving Retraces have begun.
RektCapital
But the top is not in, Swissblock said—meaning after a hefty correction we are poised to see much higher highs.
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