Standard Chartered Upgrades Year-End Outlook with Bullish Bitcoin Forecast

The past week has been testing Bitcoin enthusiasts’ patience, going from a new all-time high to a 12% correction within days. But analysts have warned that more corrections are a possibility, at least in the short term. With the Bitcoin halving only 32 days away—according to CoinMarketCap—some analysts are adjusting their medium-term predictions.

Related: Bitcoin Begins Recovery, Analysts Weigh in on Future Path

According to a report by CNBC, Standard Chartered has just revised its end of year forecast for 2024 upwards from USD $100k (AUD $152k) to USD $150k (AUD $228k).

The bank based this on a comparison of ETF (Exchange-Traded Funds) inflows into Spot Bitcoin ETFs against Gold ETFs, and noted in a separate report:

We think the gold analogy—in terms of both ETF impact and the optimal portfolio mix—remains a good starting point for estimating the ‘correct’ BTC price level medium-term.

Standard Chartered

Analysts at the bank believe that while gold appreciated in price by 4.3x in eight years following the ETP (exchanged traded products) introduction, the Spot Bitcoin ETFs will see a more rapid increase.

We expect Bitcoin to enjoy price gains of a similar magnitude as a result of US Spot ETF approval—but we see these gains materialising over a shorter (one- to two-year) period—given our view that the BTC ETF market will develop more quickly.

Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered also has noted that they expect a cycle high of USD $250k (AUD $381k) by 2025—with Bitcoin ultimately settling at approx. USD $200k (AUD $305k).

USD 200,000 is the ‘correct’ end-2025 price level for BTC. It also suggests that an overshoot to USD 250,000 is likely at some point in 2025 if ETF inflows continue apace and/or reserve managers buy BTC.

Geoff Kendrick

The analysts also believe in the approval of Spot Ethereum ETFs by 23 May, which could send ETH to USD $8k (AUD $12.2k) amid USD $45bn (AUD $68.7bn) in inflows.