Standard Chartered Says BTC Drop Not Over, May Go as Low as $50k

Bitcoin falls below the crucial US$60k mark, with analysts at Standard Chartered predicting more short-term declines, potentially down to US$50k.
Geoff Kendrick cites continuous outflows from US spot ETFs and positions being underwater as factors driving further price drops.
Despite the current downturn, Standard Chartered maintains a bullish long-term view, forecasting Bitcoin to reach US$150k by the end of 2024.

With Bitcoin falling well below the important US$60k (AU$91.9k) mark, most – unless you have opened a short position – would hope that the worst of the 20% dip is over, and BTC goes on a rally from here.

But according to the analysts over at Standard Chartered, we may see much more short-term pain. The analysts forecast a further drop toward US$50k (AU$76.6k), which would mean another 12% down from here.

Related: Market Analyst Pav Hundal Looks at Where Bitcoin May Be Heading Next

Head of FX Research Geoff Kendrick cited macroeconomic conditions as well as crypto specifics for the further decline in price:

On the crypto-specific, we have now had five days in a row of outflows from the US spot ETFs and, as importantly, we are now below the average ETF purchase price of around 58k. This means that more than half of the spot ETF positions are under water and so the risk of liquidation of some of them must be considered as well.

Geoff Kendric, Head of FX Research at Standard Chartered

US Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see outflows, while Hong Kong’s new products have yet to convince investors. Although the numbers are less than what many had hoped for, put into perspective – and given that the US market is quite a bit larger than Hong Kong – the early inflows are a promising sign.

We tried to warn everyone to lower expectations re HK (esp vs that $25b hopium OD estimate). That said, if you localize numbers this was BIG: eg ChinaAMC bitcoin ETF took in $123m on Day One which already ranks it 6th of 82 ETFs launched in past 3yrs in HK and Top 20% overall pic.twitter.com/1nUKWgxgi3
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) April 30, 2024

Further holding down Bitcoin is a reduction in US liquidity, Kendrick said. The US Fed has just again crushed hopes – though did anyone really have such hopes? – of rate cuts, on the back of ongoing sticky inflation.

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Despite this Standard Chartered is sticking to its forecast for 2024 which sees US$150k (AU$229.5k) for BTC by the year’s end.

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