- Bitcoin is trading around US$91,163 with US$90k as key support, while the Fear and Greed Index at 15 points indicates persistent market anxiety.
- Some analysts, like Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick, believe a market bottom is forming based on indicators returning to historical lows.
- Market movement reflects rotation amongst long-term holders shifting Bitcoin to institutions via ETFs and corporate treasuries, rather than capitulation, according to CryptoQuant’s Ki Young Ju.
- Despite US$2.5 billion in spot Bitcoin ETF outflows in November, analysts argue this reflects unwinding of basis trades rather than loss of institutional conviction in Bitcoin itself.
Bitcoin is holding US$90k (AU$138k) as support at present, trading around US$91,163 (AU$140,596), even as unease lingers in the market. According to the Fear and Greed Index, the crypto market remains firmly in Fear territory, with the index only edging up from yesterday’s extremely low reading of 11 to 15 points today.
However, in a tweet, analysts from Santiment said that BTC, ETH and XRP are “all showing good signs of a potential rebound”, even as retail investors continue to sell.
Related: Australia Enters the Global Crypto Spotlight as Adoption Surges
Standard Chartered Analyst Says Bottom Could Be Near
Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, is singing the same tune, saying he expects a bottom to form soon.
I see the recent sell-off as being nothing more than a fast, painful version of the third one of the past couple of years, of nearly exactly the same magnitude.
Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard CharteredKendrick pointed out that several indicators tied to market mood and pricing have fallen back to levels typically seen near past market lows. One example is MicroStrategy’s adjusted net asset value measure, which compares the value of its Bitcoin stash with its stock price; that metric has now slipped back to a one-to-one level.
With several key metrics down, Kendrick said, “This is enough to signify the sell-off is over,” adding that “a rally into year-end” is his “base case”.
Kendrick, who said in previous notes to investors that Bitcoin could reach US$200k (AU$308k) by the end of 2025, did not comment on the year-end target. Longer term, he had predicted US$500k (AU$770k) by 2028.
ETF Outflows Continue, But Institutional Interest Hasn’t Changed, Say Analysts
That sense that the market is consolidating rather than breaking down is echoed by CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju. He argues that the current pullback is largely a rotation among long-term holders, with “old Bitcoiners selling to TradFi players” via ETFs, MicroStrategy and other channels that are still injecting fresh liquidity.
Related: VanEck Launches Fee-Free Solana ETF as Competition Heats Up in Altcoin Funds
In his view, growing demand from sovereign funds, pension funds, multi-asset managers and corporate treasuries is building such powerful liquidity pipes that the old four-year “cycle theory” won’t really apply unless and until those flows slow dramatically.
Despite this positive outlook, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen about US$2.5 billion (AU$3.85 billion) of outflows in November, making it one of their worst months. BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes says this reflects big asset managers unwinding basis trades in products like BlackRock’s IBIT – an arbitrage strategy rather than a conviction bet on Bitcoin – so the selling is more about a trade losing profitability than institutions losing faith in BTC itself.
Hayes also predicts that BTC could drop as low as US$80k (AU$123k) before it rallies to US$250k (AU$385k) by the end of 2025, based on an increase in liquidity driven by the Fed.
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