- Popular analyst Michaël van de Poppe advises against buying into an altcoin during a rally due to the high chance of entering late and facing losses.
- He suggests that the best investment opportunities arise during periods of low market confidence, as seen post-FTX collapse.
- The trader emphasises the potential in early investing in undiscussed but promising altcoins, where initial investments can significantly grow as market sentiment and hype increase.
- His general rule for entering the market is to wait for a correction of 25-60% from an altcoin’s recent peak, prioritising safety and potential for gains over the risks of chasing rallies.
Ready to FOMO into that altcoin trade now or should you wait for a correction? How do you position yourself to not lose out? Is it worth jumping on an altcoin that is pumping? Trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe says “probably not,” but he has more advice for us than just that.
Van de Poppe says it’s understandable that we want to jump on something that is pumping—because that is the real fear of missing out (FOMO) kicking in. He quotes a statistic which says that 80-90% of traders hop on trades during the last 10% of price movement.
That is quite sobering, but he admits it happens to everyone. The key is to learn from mistakes and not repeat them too often. So how do you keep your cool and not hop on the train while it is about to leave the station? Michaël has the following suggestions:
Late To The Party – Sit This Round Out
Once you note that a particular altcoin is trending on your socials it’s probably not the best time to buy says Van de Poppe, because others will take note too. If any coin has made 200-400% gains, the investors holding these gains will flock to socials to share their clever trades.
In those situations, our emotions can get the better of us, and we might expect to continue to see exponential gains. This is similar to a bear market where people expect Bitcoin to drop below $10k and for it to consolidate around $16K.
Probably not the right time to get involved, as Van de Poppe puts it:
If something is too good to be true and is getting overhyped, it probably isn’t the right moment to get yourself into the markets.
Michaël Van de PoppeFinancial Opportunities Are Greatest During Times Of Low Confidence
Next, the analyst discusses more emotions, this could probably be summed up as reverse FOMO—because when prices are low, nobody wants to buy. In hindsight those post-FTX collapse prices now look like great buying opportunities.
The risk, Van de Poppe explains, is actually much higher to buy Bitcoin at $48k than at $15k, because chances are those who bought at $15k are the ones who take some profits at $48k.
Which means corrections are always a possibility. Additionally, not only is the risk higher, the potential returns are lower too:
If you had conviction during periods after the FTX collapse that nothing fundamentally has been wrong on Bitcoin, your return is more than 200% since. If you bought prior to the ETF launch, you’re barely up 7%.
Michaël Van de PoppeAltcoins follow a similar principle: if an undiscussed yet thriving altcoin with a promising ecosystem emerges, early investment can be wise. As sentiment and hype build, early adopters often witness significant growth.
Safer To Wait For Corrections Than Chase Rallies
Finally, chasing a rally often means entering late, risking buying at or near short-term peaks with a high likelihood of facing significant corrections. This strategy typically results in a negative expected value, with the potential for losses outweighing the chances of continued rally gains.
So, what does Michaël van de Poppe recommend instead?
General rule: Step into an Altcoin once it has been correcting by 25-60% from its recent peak.
Michaël Van de Poppe
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