- On-chain analyst James Check notes that Bitcoin’s current $63K level aligns with historical “bottom formation” zones similar to December 2018 and June 2022.
- While further downside is possible, the analysis suggests the market is in a “de-risked accumulation phase” where time consolidation is a bigger hurdle than further price collapse.
- Institutional flows are currently pressured, with analyst Eric Jackson noting that Bitcoin is trading like a high-beta tech asset following sustained spot ETF outflows since October 2025.
Bitcoin has been hovering just slightly over the US$63K (AU$89K) level, which on-chain analyst James Check believes matches historical bottom formation zones seen after major capitulation events.
In an X note published Wednesday, Check highlighted that multiple reversion models from technical and on-chain data are aligned in ranges previously associated with cycle lows, citing December 2018 and June 2022 as comparable periods, when sharp drawdowns were followed by extended base-building before recovery.
Read more: Curve Founder: DAO Disputes Signal Strength, Not Weakness
Bitcoin Has “Broken” From Its Old Patterns
Check argued that either Bitcoin has structurally broken from its historical pattern of mean reversion or current conditions represent a de-risked accumulation phase.
He cautioned that further downside is possible but said time consolidation, rather than additional price collapse, is likely to be the larger hurdle.
In 2022, Bitcoin’s widely remembered US$15,600 (AU$23,868) low came months after what he considers the effective bottom near US$17,600 (AU$26,928), followed by a prolonged stagnation and a final liquidity event around the FTX failure.
Meanwhile, institutional flows are adding pressure as US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded sustained net outflows since October 2025, coinciding with weaker price action.
EMJ Capital founder Eric Jackson described the ETF-driven selloff as a “purification” phase, saying Bitcoin has recently traded in close correlation with BlackRock’s iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) and suggesting it is behaving more like a high-beta technology asset than a store of value.
Jackson argued that institutional investors have become the dominant marginal buyers this cycle, replacing retail demand seen in 2021. He said a slowdown in tech-sector selling and renewed stablecoin growth on exchanges could mark a shift in momentum.
Related: XRP Sees Biggest Realised Loss Spike Since 2022: Capitulation or Turning Point?
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