- Bitcoin’s tight trading range and 5% monthly decline caught the attention of industry leaders, with Samson Mow suggesting potential price suppression during Consensus Hong Kong 2025.
- Market analysis from Glassnode indicates a period of contraction and consolidation, with declining momentum across major assets including Ethereum and popular memecoins.
- Institutional activity shows a cooling trend, evidenced by a lacklustre performance of spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs and reduced leveraged exposure from traders in the derivatives markets.
- Analysts identify US$92.5k as a critical threshold where many recent buyers would face unrealised losses, potentially triggering increased selling pressure and market direction change.
The Bitcoin price has been trading in a narrow band for most of February, reaching a top of US$102k (AU$160.8k) at the start of the month, slowly going lower to US$96.6k (AU$152.4k) as of today.
Over the past month, the price of BTC has declined by 5%, which begs the question if we’ll see a reversal soon or if this is the start of some larger correction.
Price Action Looks Odd, Says Samson Mow
Founder of Pixelmatic and CEO of Jan3, Samson Mow, said during a panel discussion at Consensus Hong Kong 2025 that the tight range within which Bitcoin trades “just doesn’t look natural at all”.
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Mow said the trading range looked like it may be due to “some sort of price suppression”.
If you look at the price movement, we peak, and then we stay steady and chop sideways. And it’s good, you can say it’s consolidation, but it just looks very manufactured.
Samson MowThe CEO believes that – with all the institutional buying from the likes of Saylor’s Strategy – someone is selling, evidenced by the tight trading zone.
Meanwhile, Glassnode analysts wrote in a recent report that “the market has entered into a period of contraction and consolidation since then, with price momentum sharply declining across major assets”.
Solana and memecoins have also sharply corrected after they “thrived during strongly trending market conditions”, while second in charge, Ethereum, “remained one of the weakest performers throughout this cycle”.
Analysts: Watch US$92.5k for Signals on Market Direction
The analysts also said that capital inflows have slowed down and most assets “flipped negative”, indicating further bearish conditions.
Ethereum and Top Memecoins have now flipped negative (capital outflows) […] This signals a meaningful cooling down in speculative appetite and alludes to a potential for capital rotation out of riskier assets on the road ahead.
GlassnodeDeclining open interest means traders are “reducing their leveraged exposure, likely in response to weaker market momentum and increasing market uncertainty”.
According to Glassnode, perpetual funding rates further reinforce the downward trend, which is a bearish shift.
Even institutional buyers seem to take a step back, with spot Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) performing poorly over the past days.
Related: US SEC Acknowledges Bitwise Spot XRP ETF; XRP $5 Soon?
With that in mind, the analysts point to the US$92.5k range which will put a lot of BTC holders underwater, potentially leading to additional sell-offs.
This is a pivot point where a large proportion of recent buyers will see their holdings move into an unrealized loss. This could precipitate more downside as panic sets in.
GlassnodeWhatever direction the market’s heading next, they say this phase seems to be coming to an end, and “the market looks ready to trend in one direction once again”.
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