- Polymarket has taken in billions in betting volume on the US election, with the primary market predicting a Trump victory.
- However, it’s possible bettors will be waiting weeks, or even months, before seeing a cent.
- This is because Polymarket won’t pay out users until an official winner is declared – either via Inauguration, or with three major media outlets calling the race.
- Inauguration day is typically set for late January, however, unprecedented circumstances could push the result out even further.
- Although the election will likely be close, most bettors believe a resolution will come within the next 2-3 days.
Election day is finally here.
It’s possibly the biggest day in crypto’s 2024 calendar, with global markets set for a shake-up depending on the outcome of the US presidential race.
Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction platform, has raked in over US $3b (AU $4.5b) in volume for its presidential winner market.
Although there’s been a late surge of money for a Kamala Harris victory, at the time of writing, Trump still holds a strong lead according to Polymarket bettors (59% to 41%).
However, regardless of the outcome, it may take months for a successful prediction to see a cent paid out.
Here’s why.
Related: Trump’s Odds Drop Over 10% on Polymarket; New Election-Themed Game Pack Shocks Gamers
Polymarket Set to Hold Payouts Until Official Victory Announcement, Potentially Months Away
The US Presidential election is tipped to be a close race, despite most betting markets suggesting a likely Trump victory.
As we’ve seen throughout United States history, election results aren’t always clear in the immediate aftermath of polls closing. In 2020, the world held its breath as Donald Trump lawyered up and disputed the outcome of several states.
This wasn’t the first time uncertainty rocked the US in the days following votes being counted – the Al Gore vs George Bush election in 2000 took 35 days before the result was finalised.
If the 2024 US election is even remotely close, an official winner may not be crowned for weeks or even months.
This could spell bad news for Polymarket bettors, as the platform won’t pay out users until an “official announcement”.
So, unless the three major media outlets – Associated Press, Fox and NBC – all call the race for the same candidate, bettors may have to wait until Inauguration Day, set to occur on January the 20th, 2025.
Bettors Confident in a Swift Resolution
Given the…unique…political times we live in, it’s entirely possible that an official winner isn’t deemed until after the typical Inauguration date.
In a tight count, we will probably be subject to recounts, lawsuits and debate for weeks upon weeks.
But hey – at least the news cycle will keep on ticking over!
Despite the uncertainty, Polymarket bettors aren’t too downtrodden. For starters, users will get paid out based on whoever is Inaugurated on January 20, even if outlets haven’t agreed on a winner.
And in more optimistic signs, the prediction market has odds on the date AP will call the race (with Fox and NBC likely to follow suit).
So far, most bettors believe the election will finish up by Wednesday, November 6th US time – so within the next 48 hours. In that case, Polymarket users won’t have to wait too long to see their payouts at all.
But hey, it’s US politics. Anything can happen.
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