On The Radar – What to Watch This Week in Crypto 4/4/25

Liberation Day has landed this week, marking the official release of the much-awaited reciprocal tariffs. While the near-term effects of the reciprocal tariffs are anyone’s guess, my base case is for chop.

For context, the US by country has the biggest consumer market in the world. Because of this, some nations tax imports from the US to protect their domestic industries. The rationale from President Donald Trump is that these trade rules between the US and countries producing goods to sell in the US were unfair. 

He argued it’s reasonable that the US tax imported goods the same way other countries tax American exports.

As a result, we now know that 10% across-the-board tariffs will be applied starting April 5th, and reciprocal rates against certain countries will kick in on April 9th. 

How Bad is It?

So how does the trade war and this lack of consumer confidence stack up against other periods of uncertainty? 

Is the market risk off?

Corporate credit markets provide a valuable gauge of how much risk the broader market is willing to take in the current market environment. It’s an interesting way to understand how Bitcoin – one of the most risk-on assets available – fits into the broader picture.

Businesses seek investment for growth, and these strategies come in many shapes and sizes. So, when investors look at buying corporate bonds, the ratings of the assets vary as not all businesses carry the same level of risk. The chart below highlights this by showing the difference in yield between ‘BB’-rated companies (riskier) and ‘AAA’-rated companies (safer), represented by the black line.

When investors want to avoid risk, the demand for ‘safer’ assets increases – raising the yields of riskier bonds, and we see the spikes and increases in the [BK1] spread (black line).

Therefore, this risk spread has widened significantly during major crises – from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) to the Covid pandemic and the recent inflation-driven downturn since 2022. No one wants to invest in companies providing payday loans for NFTs during a financial crisis.

What you need to know about this chart is the higher the black line moves, the less comfortable the market is to take on riskier investments.

When we overlay Bitcoin’s price performance, we see a simple correlation.

• Corporate risks spreads trending higher, Bitcoin has trended lower.
• Corporate risks spreads trending lower, Bitcoin has trended higher.

Since 2025 began, this risk metric has been moving to the upside, signalling the broader market has also shifted to safer risk products since this tariff drama started. During this same period we have seen Bitcoin take a -30% hit from its year-to-date all-time high. 

Despite this, risk spreads are still well below previous levels of instability – so investors aren’t completely risk-off for now.

Observing the direction of this index in the coming weeks will help provide additional context for what to expect from Bitcoin in the future.

Check out my latest video for a further breakdown.

BTC

Decision point | We are now day 37 since we broke the bottom of this range, where we wait to see if the market is interested in finally pushing higher or lower. 

Weekly open holding | Even after the turbulent 24 hours since the announcement of tariffs and subsequent equities sell-off, Bitcoin still trades higher than when it opened the week. 

Hold | This is an area where I want to see bulls continue to support prices, as we head into the weekend. 

Related: PayPal Expands Crypto Offerings With Direct Solana and Chainlink Transactions

ETH

Range extremes | Ethereum is at a decision point that is not too dissimilar to the rest of the market. 

Bulls time to shine | This is the area where, over the coming weeks, it’s time to see the Bulls step in. However, the backdrop globally might make it very hard for it to do so given the uncertainty in the macro. 

Leave it in the oven | Until there is a range reclaim on Ethereum, I’m not confident enough to take a long-term position in the asset. 

SOL

Key level | Solana is at a crossroads as well. This $110-$115 range lows hold as it has done so in the past. Now is the time I want to see Bulls step up to the plate. 

Sub $100 |  If we fail to hold these levels, Solana’s range lows will open up. 

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