On the Radar – Coins to Watch: AAVE and ONDO

On the 10th of December, we bore witness to an enormous de-leveraging event in the crypto markets, with over $1.5 billion US in long exposure wiped off the market books. But it is a prime example of market conditions where true demand (spot buyers) was absent and FOMO chasing leverage traders were betting on higher prices. 

This is a common play out of the book during bull markets, and we’ve already seen a substantial recovery. Bitcoin is at this current time trading back above $100,000 US. 

While it would have been painful to be in the camp of the leveraged long traders, this is something we should be expecting to happen again. As always, there’s the chance for opportunity during these periods of lower prices. 

Inflation Put to Bed

This week we have witnessed both China’s year-on-year consumer price index (CPI) inflation land well below the forecast of 0.4%, at 0.2%. This is a 50% shift lower in what the market expected. 

The US also shared similar positive sentiment towards inflation with their CPI year-on-year reading coming in as expected at 2.7%.

Bitwise’s 10 Crypto Predictions for 2025

Bitwise is the leading global crypto index fund manager. This year, they launched alongside the likes of BlackRock and Fidelity a spot in Bitcoin and Ethereum Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). 

This week, they dropped their predictions for 2025, which are a very interesting read and pretty spot on, in my opinion. 

• Prediction 1: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana will hit new all-time highs, with Bitcoin trading above $200,000.
• Prediction 2: Bitcoin ETFs will attract more flows in 2025 than they did in 2024.
• Prediction 3: Coinbase will surpass Charles Schwab as the most valuable brokerage in the world, and its stock will top $700 per share.
• Prediction 4: 2025 will be the “Year of the Crypto IPO”, with at least five crypto unicorns going public in the U.S.
• Prediction 5: Tokens launched by AI agents will spearhead a memecoin mania even bigger than in 2024.
• Prediction 6: The number of countries holding bitcoin will double.
• Prediction 7: Coinbase will enter the S&P 500 and MicroStrategy will enter the Nasdaq-100, adding crypto exposure to (nearly) every U.S. investor’s portfolio.
• Prediction 8: The U.S. Department of Labor will relax its guidance against crypto in 401(k) plans, enabling billions of dollars to flow into crypto assets.
• Prediction 9: Stablecoin assets will double to $400 billion as the U.S. passes long-awaited stablecoin legislation.
• Prediction 10: The value of tokenised real-world assets (RWAs) will surpass $50 billion as Wall Street’s embrace of crypto intensifies.
• Bonus Prediction: In 2029, Bitcoin will overtake the $18 trillion gold market and trade above $1 million per bitcoin.

Fear and greed currently reads 80 – Extreme greed.

Related: Bitcoin Strategy Puts MicroStrategy’s Nasdaq Index Listing In Doubt

Bitcoin – BTC

As we approach the end of the quarter, using a Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) tool can be handy when anchored to the start of the quarter to look at what the market might consider as key levels moving forward. 

This indicator provides bands of how stretched price currently is, relative to its average volume weighted price. 

Bullish Scenario

As prices continue to make higher highs and higher lows, we should see targets like the +2 Standard Deviation ($109,694) and +3 Standard  Deviation ($123,260) become possible levels of interest for the market, now that we are in price discovery. 

Bearish Scenario

Losing the +1 Std. Deviation, currently $96,129 could prove bearish, as a key level has been lost. 

Related: NFT Sales Soar, Driven by Pudgy Penguins in Record-Breaking Week

AAVE – AAVE

Using a Fibonacci extension from the previous all time highs to the most recent lows from 2022, we can develop these key levels on AAVE. 

Bullish Scenario 

Continuing to see sponsorship by the bulls, I’d expect a move towards the 0.618 ratio, and then a re-accumulation and move towards the 0.786 next. 

Bearish Scenario

Weakness around the range midpoint could result in a shift back lower, before we can try to go higher. 

Ondo Finance – ONDO

Using Fibonacci extensions again for ONDO I’m looking at the below plan of attack. 

Bullish Scenario 

Having broken above the golden Fibonacci level of 0.618, we could now expect the targets higher being achievable. 

Bearish Scenario

Should there be some weakness developing at these highs, and failure to rally, we could see prices move back toward the middle of the range. 

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