- Monthly and quarterly closes at the end of this week.
- US Policymakers solidify the reality of interest rate cuts & US GDP and Inflation data to impact markets over the next two days.
- Altcoins analysis: IMX and RUNE
After a breakout on Friday last week, we now find Bitcoin trading just above last week’s open price of $58,480 USD.
Why The Breakout?
This move may have been influenced by a key announcement out of the US, with the Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, publicising for the first time publicly that rate cuts are coming.
“The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.” Jerome Powell, Kansas City Fed’s annual economic conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Bitcoin specifically moved 5.2% between the time of the announcement and the daily close at 10 am AEST on Saturday.
Macro Events Left for The Week
The latest US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures will be released tonight at 10:30 pm AEST. Current expectations are for 2.8%, a repeat of last month’s figure.
Friday at 10:30 pm AEST will bring the latest leading metric for inflation in the US: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). This metric describes the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. The forecast is for 0.2%, again a mirror of last month’s figure.
As Jerome Powell stated, the pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, which is why these data results are impactful.
Fear and greed currently reads 45.
Related: Sony Launches Soneium Minato Testnet and Web3 Developer Program, “Soneium Spark”
Bitcoin – BTC
After a sizeable move last week, Bitcoin started this week with a lack of enthusiasm for more upside, retracing most of the move higher. We also saw the market reject at the 200-day moving average (blue line). Below are two potential scenarios as we head into the weekend.
Bullish Scenario
Back at the previous lows, where the breakout began last week, we could see some support from the bulls here to potentiate the next swing higher back towards $64,000 USD.
Bearish Scenario
With Bitcoin now trading back inside the current range identified above, we could see sellers continue to add pressure and move prices to the lows of $56,000 USD.
My Thoughts
With the quarterly close incoming, we have historically seen volatility spikes around these periods of the year.
Especially with the market trying to price in the first-rate cuts ahead of the September 18th FOMC meeting, I would caution that we could see a massive drive in volatility.
Related: More Than $100 Million BTC Long Positions Liquidated, Analysts Reveal What’s Next
Immutable X – IMX
Immutable X is leading the charge in a new generation of solutions and technologies to spearhead the infrastructure challenges of blockchain gaming.
Technically it’s putting in some noteworthy structure on a daily time frame in my opinion. Having now accepted back inside the current trading range (purple lines), below are two possible scenarios.
Bullish Scenario
Now at the midpoint of this range, we could see bulls buy up any dips. Next, we would like to see a breakout of the range highs and a move towards the midpoint between the current highs and lows of $2.34.
Bearish Scenario
Failure to find any interest at these levels could result in another retest of the range lows at $1.10 – or a further round of lows under $1.00.
THORchain – RUNE
Another asset that is currently back inside a key range technically is THORchain, below is a potentially bullish and bearish scenario.
Bullish Scenario
Continued support at these recent lows, and moving above the midpoint of this multi-month trading range.
Bearish Scenario
Failure to find interest at these prices could result in prices returning back towards the recent dip.
My Thoughts
September hasn’t got the greatest track record for performance in Bitcoin with the average returns in the last 13 years being -6.5%.
That weakness in Bitcoin, will, in my opinion, be amplified across altcoins and we could see further downside.
On that note, October has historically returned on average +15% and November +40.7% on average.
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