On the Radar – Coins to Watch 18/07

The markets have rallied impressively this week, with Bitcoin surpassing $60,000 USD early this week and altcoins following. The total crypto market cap has increased by 5.7% to $2.31 trillion USD.

Ethereum has gained 5.3% this week amid growing speculation that US Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) are nearing a launch date, with some analysts predicting July 23rd.

Bitcoin ETF flows have been heavier on inflows, with 6 out of the 8 most recent sessions landing above the $128 million USD average in total daily flows. 

US Economic Data Improving

US Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, spoke at the Economic Club of Washington, answering various questions from the audience. Below is one of the responses he gave when questioned about the current state of inflation:

“We didn’t gain any additional confidence in the first quarter, but the three readings in the second quarter, including the one from last week, do add somewhat to confidence,” Powell said Monday.

The Fed has consistently maintained that rate cuts cannot occur until the committee is confident that inflation is headed back towards its 2% target. Has the pendulum now started to turn?

Hot Take

This kind of language has not come from key policymakers until now. Since we are starting to see weakness and decline in the jobs sector, we could see the first rate cut as soon as September. 

Related: Tapping Into Crypto: Aussie Analysts Predict Explosive Gains for Crypto Market

Bitcoin – BTC

Bitcoin has successfully moved below and reclaimed the May Low in the early periods of this month, where it currently trades above the monthly open of $62,772 USD.

We are also at the midpoint range of this now 127-day consolidation period. Below are two potential outcomes now that we are at the midpoint of this range.  

Bullish Scenario

Bulls continue to defend any lows, holding above the monthly open. This could result in a further advance above the current range midpoint. 

Bearish Scenario

Failure to hold prices above the monthly open could see a decline closer to the May low region, where prices began to rally.

My Thoughts 

We’re at a decision point, the midpoint of a multi-month range. I wouldn’t be surprised even in a bullish scenario that we do cool off for a period of time. 

Related: Mark Cuban Predicts Trump’s Crypto Policies Will Boost Bitcoin’s Status and Price

Aave – AAVE

With the upcoming Ethereum ETF listing, and the recent regulatory cloud clearing I have been analysing some of the other tokens within the Ethereum ecosystem, like AAVE – a DEFI lending protocol. Below is an analysis using Fibonacci extensions. 

Bullish Scenario 

Having created a new higher high, we have a key support level for AAVE. If the market continues to hold and trend higher and get above the ‘Golden’ Fibonacci 0.618 level ($121.95), we could then see further advancement. 

Bearish Scenario

There is still the potential for downside and new lows should the support levels in grey not be held by the market. 

Pepe – PEPE

Similar to the above, PEPE is another Ethereum ecosystem token and one of the more notable and prominent meme coins in the last few months. Below is an analysis using Fibonacci extensions. 

Bullish Scenario 

If price were to get above the 0.618 golden fib level, that could be seen as a win for the bulls where we could then see price trend and advance higher if it holds. 

Bearish Scenario

This could be a bearish retest of the midrange, which might see us retest support lower, or even put in new lows. 

My Thoughts 

For altcoins, this week depends on how Bitcoin plays out. If we see a pull-back, we could see altcoins retracing recent rallies. However, if we see Bitcoin continue to consolidate sideways, we may continue to see high performing altcoins continue to rally. 

See you all again next week.

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