Is It Too Late to Invest in Bitcoin?

With Bitcoin shooting past the US$100k mark recently and setting a new all-time high at US$103,900 (AU$162,889) you may be wondering if now is too late to allocate more into BTC or even get started if you have zero BTC.

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The short answer, according to Bitwise Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Matt Hougan, is no – it’s not too late to get started with BTC.

Just ask Michael Saylor, who has been on a buying spree with his “Bitcoin-company”, Tysons Corner, Virginia-based MicroStrategy (MSTR). MSTR added billions of dollars’ worth of Bitcoin to their holdings, despite the OG crypto reaching dizzying highs.

It Always Feels Late in Bitcoin, Says Hougan

In 2023, markets have been rallying, seeing Bitcoin gain 160%, going from US$16,500 (AU$25,800) to US$42,900 (AU$67,250) within the short span of twelve months.

2024 was similar, taking BTC up over 130% already so far, and we still have a couple of weeks to go.

After the great performance of 2023 people expected a great 2024, and they have similar expectations for 2025, according to Hougan.

So, his advice is the same as last year: it’s not too late to invest because most people still hold no Bitcoin.

Again, everyone wants to know if they’re too late. My answer this year is the same as it was last year: ‘No.’ Most investors still have zero exposure to bitcoin. Until that changes, you’re early by definition.

Matt Hougan, Bitwise CIO

Also, despite all the bullish developments, like MSTR buying, the ETFs adding more BTC and governments talking about Bitcoin reserves, there’s still a lot of scepticism. For one, Microsoft has just rejected plans to add just a small amount of BTC to their balance sheet.

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Yes, more for you to buy, but it also shows that a lot of investors don’t take BTC seriously. So, that feeling that now is too late? Just a gut feeling, according to the Bitwise CIO.

It always feels late in bitcoin. Always has, always will.

Matt Hougan, Bitwise CIO

Time In the Market Beats Timing the Market

And Hougan answers another burning question: will there be a chance to scoop up more Bitcoin at a discount price? Hougan thinks so.

What people really want to know is, will bitcoin have a pullback that lets them allocate to the space at lower levels? The answer is, yes, probably. Bitcoin is volatile, and we should expect to see sharp pullbacks.

Matt Hougan, Bitwise CIO

But he says trying to time these pullbacks can be tricky and comes with risk – the risk of losing out. Hougan highlights a key detail: despite Bitcoin’s price dropping over 70% following its peak in November 2021, someone who bought the top would still be up 42% on their initial investment. 

It was a similar situation in 2017: Bought at the top and rode all the way to the lows? HODLing would have made you a 400% return, Hougan explains.

Remember that the next time you’re trying to time the market. Not financial advice of course, do your own research and decide what’s right for you.

Related: Gold Bug Peter Schiff Calls Bitcoin Greatest Threat to US Economic Security

But Hougan thinks if you really believe in the long term success of an asset, timing your entry can leave you behind.

Just look at Hougan’s own personal story and how he fared when he first found out about Bitcoin:

The first time I heard about bitcoin […] it passed $1 for the first time. […] We had an hour-long meeting talking about this new innovation. I didn’t get around to buying it that day. I was busy, and besides, I figured I was probably too late.

Matt Hougan, Bitwise CIO