If Bitcoin Price Falls Below This Level, The Bear Market Will Worsen

The Bitcoin price is approaching a decisive moment, according to the head of a major crypto analytics firm. A clearly defined price threshold has been identified, and falling below it could accelerate the current downturn. The warning centers on how both market structure and investor behavior may shift if this level fails, raising concerns about a deeper and more aggressive bear phase.

Crypto CEO Flags A Critical Bitcoin Price Level

Joao Wedson, founder of the crypto analytics platform called “Alphractal”, has issued a warning about a critical price level that could shape the next phase of the Bitcoin market. According to Wedson, $60,490 represents the realized price of Binance’s Bitcoin reserve, effectively the average cost basis of the exchange’s entire BTC holdings.

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As long as Bitcoin trades above this level, Binance’s reserve remains in profit. However, a sustained drop below $60,490 would push the largest exchange-held Bitcoin reserve into unrealized loss. In practical terms, that shift would mean the bulk of BTC held on Binance was acquired at higher prices than the current market value.

This is why Wedson views the level as more than just another technical support. Realized price metrics tied to large reserves often function as structural market boundaries. When the price holds above them, it signals that major holders remain comfortably in profit and have little pressure to distribute their coins. That dynamic can help stabilize the market during periods of volatility.

But the structure changes if that threshold breaks. Wedson noted a similar scenario in the 2022 bear market, when Bitcoin stayed below Binance’s reserve realized price for months. During that time, large holders faced unrealized losses, keeping downward pressure on the market. This matters because holders in profit are less likely to sell, but once losses appear, selling pressure can rise as they seek to limit further downside.

Because Binance controls the largest Bitcoin reserve among exchanges, the $60,490 level carries broader market implications. If Bitcoin loses this zone decisively, it would remove a key profitability cushion for one of the market’s largest holders. According to Wedson, that type of structural shift is exactly the kind of development that tends to deepen bear markets.

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How Market Psychology Could Amplify The Downtrend

The implications extend beyond institutional positioning to overall market sentiment. A decisive break below the identified level could weaken confidence among participants, reinforcing negative expectations. As sentiment shifts, more investors may adopt defensive strategies, contributing to additional selling pressure.

This interaction between price movement and psychology creates a feedback loop. Declines can trigger fear, which in turn leads to further declines. Wedson’s warning highlights how this cycle could intensify if the key level fails. However, he believes that if Bitcoin holds above it, the market may retain a degree of stability. If it falls below, the conditions described point toward a deepening bear market.

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com