Glassnode Analysts Say XRP’s Rally May Be Over, as Retail Interest Fades

The crypto markets – and the broader equity markets – are in turmoil, with all the top assets in the red. While Trump’s tariffs had been expected, the markets thought they wouldn’t be as sweeping as they turned out to be.

And XRP hasn’t been doing better than its peers, down 13% on the weekly and 2.5% on the daily time frame.

Related: Ripple’s RLUSD Stablecoin Grows 85%, Gets Integrated into Cross-Border Payments

But when zooming out, we can see that the US$2.05 (AU$3.26) it currently trades for isn’t bad at all, at least compared to a year ago.

Analysts Say XRP’s Momentum Declining

This time last year XRP traded for US$0.57 (AU$0.90), which means the price rallied by 250%. Much of this was of course due to the legal battle with the US Securities and Exchange Commission coming to an end and several applications for spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) being filed.

But the price hike may be coming to an end, according to a report by analytics firm Glassnode. The Baar, Switzerland-based blockchain and intelligence company released a report titled ‘Rippling Away’, on April 2, in which they describe that momentum for XRP may be fading and that “fragile sentiment raises caution”.

Overall, the analysts believe there is currently no sign that we see a reversal of the greater market downturn, which means a continuation of the “momentum decline” we’ve seen since January.

So far, there is little evidence suggesting a structural bullish shift in momentum is underway.

Glassnode

XRP and BTC Both with Similar Gains, But Different Pathways

With regards to XRP specifically, Glassnode’s report suggests that although both XRP and Bitcoin had similar gains from the 2022 lows, the difference is in their trajectory.

Bitcoin’s rally has followed a more organic and progressive trajectory, marked by steady growth and punctuated by sharp uptrends during key catalysts such as the launch of spot ETFs and developments around the U.S. elections.

Glassnode

XRP on the other hand didn’t have the same gains as Bitcoin initially, going sideways for a long time until late 2024, when it had its sudden move up, which the report calls “a price pattern more consistent with retail-driven speculation than with a structured and sustained inflow of new demand”.

Related: AVAX 10X Soon? Standard Chartered Makes Bold $250 Prediction for Avalanche

Additionally, XRP addresses have jumped over 490%, whereas for BTC, that increase was only 10%. The analysts believe that the obvious difference shows that XRP has captured the interest of retail investors, reflecting the speculative demand within the crypto market.

XRP’s realised cap has also significantly increased, doubling from US$30.1 billion (AU$47.98 billion) to currently US$64.2 billion (AU$102.34 billion), with most of the fresh capital coming in over the past half year. They added:

However, this capital influx has started to slow down since late February 2025, signalling a potential cooling-off in speculative appetite.

Glassnode

“Top Heavy” Cost Basis Suggests Risky Market Environment, Say Analysts

The rapid surge in capital has quickly concentrated wealth among new XRP investors, significantly increasing their share of the realised cap. This, coupled with heavy retail participation, suggests these investors are at risk of volatility due to their high entry costs, the analysts continued.  

They further said that investors’ confidence in XRP is declining due to the “top-heavy” cost basis structure which suggests a riskier environment:

This metric has been in steady decline since January 2025, suggesting that investors are realizing fewer profits and increasingly large losses. These conditions are a common signal of waning confidence and a general move towards more fragile, higher-risk conditions.

Glassnode

This means that “for more speculative assets like XRP”, we may have already seen the top. Glassnode’s conclusion for Bitcoin is that while the current downturn is “meaningful”, it may not be yet heading the way XRP and other altcoins are.

Related: XRP to $29? ETF Applicants Lay Out Price Targets as Odds of Approval Surge on Polymarket

Interestingly, a recent report by Kaiko Research and Blockhead Research Network suggests that the altseasons of the past may be over. They believe that only certain altcoins will rally, including those that are US-based, have an ETF, and have robust use cases tied to crucial narratives such as tokenisation.