- Donald Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 election surged on Polymarket, rising from 44% to 49%, placing him in a near tie with Kamala Harris, whose odds dropped from 54% to 49%
- Despite the rise in Trump’s odds on Polymarket, other polls and prediction markets show Harris leading.
- Trump disclosed significant earnings from digital assets, including over US$7.2 million from NFT licensing and US$300,000 in royalties from “The Greenwood Bible.”
Presidential candidate Donald Trump’s odds of winning the election in November 2024 have increased significantly, at least on the decentralised prediction market platform Polymarket.
Over the weekend, Trump’s odds on Polymarket rose from 44% to 49%. This surge has placed him in a near tie with Vice President Kamala Harris, whose odds fell from 54% to 49%, though she still maintains a slight marginal lead.
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Who’s Actually Leading?
Trump’s increased odds on Polymarket come as recent polling data favours Harris. Rasmussen Research, traditionally a conservative polling organisation, shows Harris leading in key swing states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Additionally, RealClearPolitics’ average of national polls has Harris ahead by 1.4 points, while the Economist’s polling average gives Harris 47.1 points and 44.4 points for Trump.
Despite Polymarket’s shift toward Trump, other major prediction markets have not yet mirrored this trend. On Betfair, the second-largest prediction market with approximately US$67 million (AU$100.2 million) in bets, Harris is ahead by around 5 points. PredictIt, one of the few prediction markets available for US citizens, shows Harris leading by 10 points.
As Trump’s odds on Polymarket increase, the former US president recently revealed he owns over one million USD in crypto and has benefited from selling and promoting digital assets.
According to a report from CBS News, the billionaire made over US$300K (AU$448K) in royalty payments for the Greenwood Bible, officially titled “God Bless the USA Bible”. Moreover, Trump’s financial disclosure form shows US$7.2 million (AU$10.76 million) in licensing fees from NFT INT LLC, which is the company behind the Trump Digital Trading Cards.
Harris’ Odds Decrease for One Reason
Interestingly, Harris’ odds decreased after she revealed her plans to stop price gouging, which has received mixed reactions.
Price gouging is a complex phenomenon in the US as it leads to several paths and often irregular outcomes. It essentially refers to retailers increasing prices for food, water, medical supplies, etc., to exorbitantly high levels, and often happens when demand exceeds supply.
Of course, this can be a financial burden on consumers. Frequently, consumers opt for different proteins, meats, medicines, etc., just because of high prices, leaving products on the shelves for those with higher acquisition power.
State laws have been made to combat price gouging, but they usually lead to unintended consequences, such as reduced supply and increased shortages, as business owners resist selling at lower prices during times of increased demand.
That said, some market observers state that halting price gouging could cause an economic disruption due to market inefficiencies. For instance, competitors might refrain from entering the market, stifling competition and innovation that could help lower prices over time. Moreover, price control often leads to shortages, long lines for consumers, and a stifled market.
The Polymarket platform has attracted significant interest, with users betting over US$630 million (AU$942 million) on the outcome of the national race, alongside millions more wagered on smaller markets focused on swing states and other election-related outcomes.
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The race continues, and the disparity between prediction markets and polling data will surely be of interest to those engaged in politics and cryptocurrencies as both parties prepare for a tightly contested election.
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