- BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin is trading at a steep discount, calling current prices possibly “the last chance” to buy below US$100k despite being roughly US$20k under its January 2025 all-time high of $109,114.
- Treasury buybacks could potentially increase liquidity and drive Bitcoin prices higher, though they’re less likely during a tariff-driven inflationary environment where President Trump is simultaneously demanding rate cuts and seeking to remove Fed Chair Powell.
- Bitfinex analysts note Bitcoin has shown “remarkable ability to stabilize amid shifting investor sentiment” and persistent macroeconomic stress from the intensifying US-China trade war.
- Bitcoin’s recovery alongside traditional safe-haven assets like gold suggests it’s increasingly viewed as a complementary asset compared to just a speculative risk asset.
With Bitcoin trading roughly US$20k (AU$31.1k) below its all-time high (ATH) of US$109,114 (AU$169,707), set on January 20, 2025, many investors are probably hoping for the OG crypto to move back over the US$100k (AU$155.5k) mark or even make new ATHs.
US President Trump’s ongoing trade war, which is intensifying with China, leaves little room for optimism, though some analysts believe an ATH could still happen soon.
One such analyst is BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who is the chief investment officer of Maelstrom. Hayes believes current prices are at a steep discount and says “this might be the last chance you have to buy $BTC < $100k”.
He hinted at a blog post coming out later in the week – which will no doubt explain his reasoning in detail and make a good read for sure – he also gave a bit more reasoning, saying treasury buybacks will push the price of BTC higher.
Related: Saylor’s MSTR Buys 6,556 More Bitcoin as US ETFs Return to Inflows
Could Treasury Buybacks See Bitcoin Surge?
Treasury buybacks – i.e. the US treasury buying back long-term US debt (bonds) – generally leads to more liquidity, which makes it more interesting for investors to get into risk-on assets such as Bitcoin. Which means: Bitcoin price up.
However, as a general rule, it’s less likely to see buybacks during a tariff-driven inflationary environment, where policymakers want to avoid adding fuel to the fire and might prioritise price stability.
The Fed has already given mixed signals, with some governors saying they’d step in to support the market while Chair Powell appears more inclined to take a wait-and-see approach.
Of course, Trump wants rates lowered and is now actively looking for ways to “release” Powell from his duties, even though the Fed is supposed to be independent from the White House administration.
Hayes may be right and we’ll see some easing, or things may continue to be tricky to predict and the world economy has to brace for more to come.
It will be interesting to see how Bitcoin is going to navigate these coming weeks and months. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan already noted that BTC is behaving differently from past cycles.
Bitfinex analysts wrote in their latest report that BTC continues to show resilience “despite persistent macroeconomic stress”, and has displayed “remarkable ability to stabilise amid shifting investor sentiment”.
The analysts wrote that BTC’s performance is especially noteworthy when compared to safe-haven assets like gold:
Bitcoinʼs ability to recover in parallel—and in the face of a strong gold bid—suggests that it is increasingly being viewed as a complementary asset within the broader macro hedge toolkit, rather than merely a speculative risk asset.
BitfinexRead also: Standard Chartered and Deutsche Bank Eye US Crypto Comeback Amid Regulatory Shift
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