- After a four-month decline, the last 30 days saw a 13% increase in retail crypto demand, reaching levels last seen at the March peak.
- Transaction volumes under US$10K, a gauge for retail sentiment, suggest increased capital flow and investor confidence.
- Analysts predict this uptick signals decreasing risk aversion, possibly signalling the start of a significant bull market.
- Despite Bitcoin’s 330% rise from its low, the real bull run may just be starting, driven by fresh institutional interest and positive market trends.
The writing on the wall tells us that finally, retail investors could be coming back to the crypto market. According to an analysis by the crypto sleuths over at CryptoQuant, “retail on-chain activity returns after 4 months”.
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After four months of decreasing activity, the analysts wrote that the last 30 days have seen a 13% increase in retail demand, last seen in March, which is of course the month of the all-time high reached in 2024.
According to CryptoQuant, on-chain transaction volume (up to US$10k) is a good way to gauge sentiment of smaller investors. Albeit a ‘more sensitive’ measure than fundamentals, they said this can be a “source of information about the flow of capital on the network”.
Overall, this scenario describes a bullish market condition where increased investor confidence and decreasing risk aversion among smaller investors contribute to sustaining or even accelerating the upward momentum of the Bitcoin price.
This recent rise in bitcoin is causing small investors to return to trading, signaling the beginning of a pattern of lower risk aversion.
CryptoQuantHas The Bull Run Even Started?
While Bitcoin has gained an impressive 330% from its cycle low in November 2022, many have argued that the absence of retail investors up until now means that the bull run hasn’t actually started. So far in 2024, it was institutional demand that has driven Bitcoin’s price rally.
The approval of the Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US in January has certainly changed the attitude of many large investment firms and pension funds.
Market analyst Cole Garner said in a post on X that the current upward trend in the market is just beginning and has a lot more potential to grow. He refers to the period before the previous bull market where investors were buying and holding onto Bitcoin, which generally indicates preparation for an expected increase in price.
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Garner compares the Bitcoin market in 2017, a year known for a significant price surge, and the current market, suggesting we’re in for big moves.
Michaël van de Poppe agrees, writing that the BTC price “at current value doesn’t make sense”.
He compares Bitcoin to established financial benchmarks like “the S&P 500 or inflation-adjusted”, saying one can better gauge when the next major price surge may occur, indicating the start of a bull market.
In that case, it mimics the previous cycles, and the bull market didn’t start. It’s the consolidation before the bull starts, so valuations can go way higher.
Michaël van de Poppe
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