As the downtrend in the crypto market continues, so does extreme fear. What’s inspiring the sell-off? Is it Omicron? Or is it Evergrande? Is it a conspiracy? Or is it the holidays? All those questions and more have had the Fear and Greed Index pointing left for a month straight. What does this mean? Where do we go from here? That’s what we’re here to explore.
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But first, let’s talk about the Fear and Greed Index. One of the many Bitcoin indicators, it measures the market’s general sentiment at the moment. Zero is extreme Fear. A hundred is extreme Greed. And the indicator oscillates between those two at any given time. It’s been said that the crypto market is very emotional. The Fear and Greed Index is there to keep investors from making irrational decisions based on sentiment alone.
Fear And Greed Index shows Extreme Fear | Source: Arcane Research’s The Weekly UpdateWhat’s The Fear And Greed Index Saying Now?
According to Arcane Research’s The Weekly Update, fear has settled in:
“The Fear and Greed Index has now signaled “Fear” or “Extreme Fear” for almost one month straight. The last time we saw such a prolonged fearful market sentiment was at the beginning of the summer when the market sentiment was fearful for more than two months straight. With the sustained consolidation of bitcoin, the late autumn euphoria has dampened, and the overall sentiment seems very negative at the moment.”
The report also says that, “during steady sell-offs, bitcoin tends to outperform the overall crypto market.” And this time was no exception, BTC “outperformed all indexes so far in December, seeing a negative return of -18% after a relatively flat second week of trading this month.” On the other hand, “the Small Cap index has seen a loss of nearly a third of its value in December.“ What does this mean in general?
“The bitcoin dominance has risen by 1.13% in the last week. This is the third time we’re seeing bitcoin dominance bottom at 40% in 2021. The last two times were May 19th and Sep 13th. It seems that the 40% threshold is a difficult area for alts to sustain”
BTC price chart for 12/15/2021 on Eightcap | Source: BTC/USD on TradingView.com
What Can We Expect In The Future?
To get our dose of technical and on-chain analysis, let’s give the mic to this month’s Fear & Greed Newsletter:
“A major factor here is the cycle support band. We cannot ignore the fact that Bitcoin had just closed 2 consecutive weeks below the market support band. Historically, this meant that we’d see a longer consolidation phase before we could have a true reversal in the trend. The takeaway here is this, as long as Bitcoin closes the week below the cycle support band, we shouldn’t expect any major breakout in price to take place.”
Every dog has its day, though. A week ago, analyzing a very similar market sentiment, NewsBTC informed you:
“A “Fear and Greed” Index on Extreme Fear levels, according to certain analysts, has historically preceded crypto market local bottoms. However, a run into new highs could see an obstacle as the macro-economic outlook turn complex.”
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It’s also important to remember that only two months ago, we were in a similar situation and the sentiment did a complete 180 in a matter of weeks.
“The indicator dipped all the way down to extreme fear on 30th September, but in under two weeks the sentiment has already rebounded back to extreme greed. The report notes that this shows how fast the sentiment can change among the crypto market.”
With that being said, and a disclaimer that this isn’t financial advice, in a situation like this there’s only one thing we could say… hodl the line!
Featured Image: PublicDomainPictures on Pixabay| Charts by TradingView
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