Crypto-Bets Show Tie in Presidential Race

Donald Trump had a solid lead against Joe Biden in US election polls before Biden announced his departure from the presidential campaign. But ever since Kamala Harris entered the picture, the margin has become narrower and Trump’s lead has been melting away.

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Now, the latest data from Polymarket shows that Trump and Harris are neck-and-neck both at 49%.

Note that Polymarket data does not represent a traditional poll. It’s a platform that allows users to buy and sell shares on the outcome of various events, often political or current events, based on their predictions. So, anything here is more comparable to the wisdom of the crowd to generate probabilities and is fundamentally different from traditional polling.

Nevertheless, it gives a clue as to what the sentiment is around the November election. And recent data from several polls highlights the increasing support for Kamala Harris.

According to the latest Marquette Law School Poll national survey, 52% of registered voters would vote for Harris compared to 48% who would vote for Trump. According to Ipsos, Harris also has the lead.

Crypto Becoming an Election Topic, But Does it Matter?

After Trump’s long stance against the industry, he became a strong supporter, even giving a well-received speech at the 2024 Bitcoin conference in Nashville, Tennessee. Some see his recent support as a grab for votes, while others argue that any support is welcome.

Most recently, with Harris entering the race, there has been some hope that the Democratic party could become more pro-crypto.

Just recently the “Crypto for Harris” campaign has been launched, with the aim to bring Democrats closer to the industry. In a separate attempt to mend relations, crypto executives from Ripple, Coinbase, Kraken, Uniswap, and others met with Democratic representatives to clear the air, but the discussions ended up getting pretty heated.

As Fox Business reporter Eleanor Terrett reported the meeting wound up a “clash with Democratic leaders in [a] heated Zoom meeting”.

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However, not everyone thinks it matters. Founder of BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, has even outright questioned the relevance of the results of the presidential election. Hayes believes neither Trump nor Harris will bring action that drives growth in the industry.

He added that even Gary Gensler – whom many have called to be removed as SEC chair – and the SEC leadership are “basically irrelevant”, stating that nothing would change with a different chair.

Gary Gensler’s not the problem. The SEC isn’t the problem either…People are getting all worked up about Gary Gensler, but he kind of is irrelevant.

Arthur Hayes