Crypto Analyst Reveals What Would Reject Current Bearish Hypothesis

Since Bitcoin failed to hold above the $100,000 psychological barrier earlier this year, its bullish momentum has gradually unraveled. The pullback has deepened over the past two months, with Bitcoin trading between $75,000 and $79,000 in April. The bullish prospect is becoming very weak, and the crypto sector is searching for technical clarity amidst a buildup of pressure across traditional markets, especially with equities.

Given the situation, crypto analyst Tony Severino noted that the current setup offers one major move that could invalidate an extended bearish momentum.

Tony “The Bull” Identifies Important LMACD Inflection Point To Reject Bearish Hypothesis

According to Tony “The Bull” Severino, the most important chart development is the incoming bearish crossover on Bitcoin’s 1-month LMACD indicator. The LMACD, which tracks market momentum on a logarithmic scale, currently shows the blue line drifting toward a crossover beneath the orange signal line.

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This kind of intending crossover is known to be an important bearish confirmation, and its appearance has coincided with growing weakness across broader markets, including traditional indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

Although the crossover has not yet been confirmed by a monthly close, its presence at the open of April is enough to stir concern. Severino explained that unless a significant rally occurs before the end of the month, the blue line will cross below the orange line, and momentum will officially turn bearish.  If the month closes with the crossover intact, it will mark the first confirmed bearish momentum shift on the LMACD since the bullish reversal in July 2023.

Bitcoin Bulls Still Have A Window To Flip The Outlook Before April Ends

According to Tony Severino, this crossover is not the sole reason for leaning bearish on Bitcoin’s medium-term trajectory, but it stands out as the most precise technical marker that could trigger a rethink. The crossover isn’t isolated to the Bitcoin price chart. Severino highlighted that the same bearish crossover was already confirmed last month in major indices like the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100. Interestingly, the crossover has already shown up in the BTCUSD versus GOLD chart, further supporting the idea that Bitcoin is no longer moving in isolation but reacting to widespread macro pressures.

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Despite the bearish tilt, the situation is not yet final. The current crossover is provisional, meaning there’s still time for bulls to reverse the signal. A powerful upward move this month could cause the blue LMACD line to diverge higher, reestablish upward momentum and invalidate the bearish setup before it solidifies. The analyst also noted this possibility of a rebound considering the current oversold levels. This is because oversold technical conditions generally creates the kind of environment where a dramatic reversal is possible. 

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $77,260, down by 2.23% and 8.93% in the past 24 hours and seven days, respectively.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com