Some financial experts with a specialty in bubbles believe crypto is either one of the biggest bubbles in history or a smart Ponzi scheme not seen before.
2022 can be considered one of the worst years for the crypto ecosystem as a number of high-profile DeFi and CeFi platforms collapsed. Among the more notable examples, the Terra/LUNA ecosystem imploded in May while major crypto exchange FTX collapsed in early November.
Around $2 trillion worth of value was wiped out of the crypto market last year. While crypto proponents argue this is not out of the norm, citing crypto crashes in 2012 and 2017 when the market lost around 70% of its value, traditional financial experts are not sold.
For one, William Quinn, a senior lecturer at Queens’ University Belfast whose research focuses on financial bubbles, believes crypto is either a “stupider bubble than any previous bubble” in financial history or “a smarter Ponzi than any previous Ponzi.”
In an article last week, Quinn said the Tulip Mania, a period during the Dutch Golden Age when contract prices for some bulbs of the recently introduced and fashionable tulip reached extraordinarily high levels, was more of a “popular narrative” than a true financial bubble of modern scale.
He then argued that it “made far too much sense to be compared to the crypto bubble.” And the dotcom bubble that began in the late ’90s is nothing but a “very flattering comparison” to crypto, according to the historian. He said:
“This is a very flattering comparison and is most often invoked as a pro-crypto argument. The problem is that crypto and blockchain, unlike the internet, are simply not very useful.”
All in all, Quinn noted three features of the crypto industry that makes it different from past financial bubbles. In the first place, he claimed crypto assets have “no use-value” unless others are willing to accept them.
Second, they don’t create cash flows. And finally, some digital assets like Bitcoin have mining costs that can only be paid in fiat currencies. He added:
“Not all major cryptocurrencies are exactly like this, but most are close. These are uniquely terrible characteristics for an investment. Every previous bubble I’ve encountered has involved either a commodity, a collectible, or an asset with associated cash flows.”
Nevertheless, Quinn noted that not all cryptocurrencies are frauds because a fraud needs a perpetrator. He specifically mentioned Bitcoin, saying that the flagship cryptocurrency was created as “a sincere — if somewhat unhinged — political project,” but still claimed it is a bad investment.
Meanwhile, not all financial experts share the same view as Quinn. As reported, the World Economic Forum (WEF) said the technology underpinning cryptocurrencies and digital assets will continue to be an “integral” part of the modern economy. The organization said:
“Indeed, as a test of the staying power of digital assets and blockchains at the core of financial services (and other areas of the global economy), watch what the big banks and mature financial services firms do, not what they say.”
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