- Four Polymarket accounts betting heavily on Trump winning the 2024 election are owned by non-Americans, raising concerns of market manipulation.
- Tarek Mansour, founder of the Kalshi prediction market, denies claims of manipulation, citing similar market dynamics across platforms.
- Mansour notes that while more bets are placed on Trump, the median bet size on Harris is larger.
Concerns of manipulation have emerged following former President Donald Trump’s 20-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris on the crypto-based prediction market, Polymarket.
The gap —significantly larger than public opinion polls suggest— has drawn attention due to the involvement of non-American bettors.
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Speculation Rises
Four Polymarket accounts —named Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie— have reportedly wagered US$30M (AU$44.6M) on Trump winning the 2024 presidential election, boosting Trump’s odds to 60% on the decentralised prediction market.
And oddly enough, the shift comes despite national polling data from FiveThirtyEight showing a narrow 2.5-point lead for Vice President Kamala Harris over Trump.
Arkham Intelligence founder Miguel Morel told the Wall Street Journal “there’s strong reason to believe they are the same entity” and noted that Arkham found out these accounts were funded through US crypto exchange Kraken.
What are the Odds?
Tarek Mansour, founder of the Kalshi prediction market, refuted claims of manipulation, offering data to support the accuracy of Polymarket’s results.
Mansour pointed out that while more people are betting on Trump, the median bet size for Harris is larger, with a median of US$85 (AU$126) compared to US$58 (AU$86) for Trump. He emphasised that the 20-point lead on Polymarket aligns with Kalshi’s data, where a similar pattern of betting on Trump is observed.
However, Mansour clarified that Kalshi is an “American-only” platform, countering the idea that foreign bettors are influencing the market.
Mansour had to make things simpler for people: more people are just betting on Trump, it is what it is:
There are simply more traders betting on Trump than Kamala. Approximately 60% of traders favor Trump, while 40% favor Kamala.
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Despite Harris leading at points in August and September, Trump’s odds surged in early October, further fuelling debates about the role of prediction markets in forecasting elections. Critics remain sceptical of platforms like Polymarket, particularly due to its restriction on US-based bettors.
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