Cantor Fitzgerald believes the current Bitcoin and crypto downturn may be more of a temporary pullback than the start of a prolonged crypto winter.
In a new CNBC interview, analyst Brett Knoblauch says that shorter drawdowns so far this cycle, Federal Reserve rate cuts, the absence of a major “black swan” event, and growing regulatory support in the US and abroad could be signs that more than half of any potential decline may already be over.
“I think if you look at the previous kind of cycles, the peak to trough duration is about 364 days. We are 85 days into that, but I think there’s a lot of positive momentum that suggests that this might not be a crypto winter. It could just be a pullback. We’ve already had 330% pullbacks this cycle right. We have the Fed is cutting rates. The past two winters have started with the Fed raising rates. We have no real black swan-esque events.”
According to the analyst, the absence of an FTX-level catastrophic market event bodes well for crypto in its current downturn.
“If you go back in the past couple of cycles you had the Mount Gox hack, you had FTX bankruptcy. We haven’t really had anything. I would say, blowing up in the ecosystem so far to be that black swan event. And if you look at peak to trough pull down, I don’t think we’re going to have a 75% pullback, which is what the previous cycles have had. We have a ton of I would think, regulatory support.
People in government kind of supporting crypto not just in the US but across across the world. So I think if anything, if we are in winter more than half the pullback has probably happened.”
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