- Bitwise CIO, Matt Hougan, believes Bitcoin will break its four-year cycle and make a new all-time high in 2026.
- It’s one of three predictions Hougan made for 2026, the others being continued falls in Bitcoin’s volatility, and correlation with stocks.
- Hougan believes institutional investment now exerts greater influence over Bitcoin’s price performance than forces like halvings and cyclical interest rate hikes.
Bitwise CIO, Matt Hougan, believes 2026 will be a “very good year” for crypto, with strong market momentum being driven by falling interest rates, regulatory progress, and surging institutional adoption.
In his December 15 blog post, Hougan made three predictions for 2026. The first — and most important for investors — was that Bitcoin will definitively buck its four-year cycle and surge to new all-time highs. If Bitcoin were to follow its established pattern, 2026 would be a bear market for crypto.
Hougan believes new, less idiosyncratic forces, including a huge wave of institutional adoption and investment, will decide what happens in crypto in 2026.
We believe the wave of institutional capital that began entering the space with the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs in 2024 will accelerate in 2026, as platforms like Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Merrill Lynch begin allocating.
Matt Hougan, Bitwise CIO“At the same time, we anticipate that crypto will begin to feel the benefits of the pro-crypto regulatory shift that took place after the 2024 election,” he said.
Hougan said this combination will drive Bitcoin to new all-time highs in 2026 and finally relegate the four-year cycle “to the dustbin of history.”
The Bitwise CIO argued that the factors that have previously influenced Bitcoin’s four-year cycle have all weakened considerably and no longer determine the overall state of the crypto market.
The forces that previously drove four-year cycles—the bitcoin halving, interest rate cycles, and crypto’s leverage-fueled booms and busts—are significantly weaker than they’ve been in past cycles.
Matt Hougan, Bitwise CIORelated: Barclays Warns of a Cooler Crypto 2026 as Trading Volumes Fade
Hougan Also Predicts Lower Volatility and Less Correlation With Stocks
In addition to breaking its four-year cycle, Hougan also believes 2026 will see Bitcoin’s volatility continue its years-long downward trend. Despite being known as a highly volatile asset, Hougan pointed out that throughout almost all of 2025, Bitcoin’s volatility has actually been lower than that of NVIDIA’s share price.
“This shift [falling volatility] reflects the fundamental derisking of bitcoin as an investment and the diversification of its investor base thanks to traditional investment vehicles like ETFs,” Hougan explained.
Hougan’s third prediction for 2026 was that Bitcoin’s correlation with the stock market will continue to decline. Already, Bitcoin is fairly weakly correlated with stocks according to Hougan, despite the widespread belief that Bitcoin’s price closely follows stocks. Hougan expects it to drop even lower in 2026 as crypto surges to new highs and stocks struggle.
Related: Aussie Analyst Reacts: The Fed’s Focus Has Quietly Shifted
We expect crypto-specific factors like regulatory progress and institutional adoption to power crypto higher, even as equities struggle with concerns about valuation and short-term economic growth.
Matt Hougan, Bitwise CIOTaken together, Hougan’s predictions paint a rosy picture for crypto investors in 2026 — all-time highs, lower volatility and further decoupling from the stock market. Let’s hope he’s right.
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