Bitcoin’s Next Decade: Fewer Fireworks, More Fundamentals

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan expects Bitcoin to enter a period of steadier gains and lower volatility as institutional investors replace speculative retail traders.
Hougan believes the traditional four-year price cycle is ending or broken and predicts that Bitcoin will reach new all-time highs in 2026.
Despite a recent drop from a record high of 126,000 dollars in October, experts remain optimistic as major banks and firms continue to adopt crypto.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan is back again with some bold predictions for Bitcoin (BTC). This time, however, he expects BTC to deliver “strong” but “less dramatic” returns over the next decade.

Hougan’s argument is that the market is shifting toward a slower, steadier climb rather than repeated outsized year-on-year surges. Speaking on CNBC on Friday next to ReserveOne’s CIO, Sebastian Bea, Hougan mentioned that the trend should come with lower volatility, as a growing share of demand comes from institutions that buy gradually and hold for longer.

Read more: Brazil’s Crypto Market Grows Up: Investment Volumes Jump 43% in 2025

Is the Four-Year Cycle Over?

Hougan maintained his view that 2026 is likely to finish higher for Bitcoin, repeating a call he made in July before the token later reached an all-time high around US$125,100 (AU$191K) in October. He also claimed that the forces behind the four-year cycle are much weaker now, or even moving in opposite directions from past cycles.

But Beau said it is still unclear whether Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle has broken down. He noted that the drop from the October peak toward the high-US$80,000 (low-AU$130,000s) range was rapid and painful, and some traders see the timing of the October high as consistent with prior cycle peaks, raising the risk of a weaker 2026.

Hougan argued the pullback has also been influenced by retail investors rotating out late in the year in anticipation of that cycle pattern, and that the drawdown has been closer to 30% rather than the 60% declines seen in prior cycle downturns, which he attributed to “persistent, slow-moving institutional buying.”

Bitcoin was trading around US$87,818 (AU$134,362) at the time of publication, down 3.81% over the past 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap.