- Bitcoin and Ether are seeing steep declines (BTC down over 30% from its peak) following concerns over Fed interest rate policy and an imminent economic slowdown.
- Bitwise research head André Dragosch suggests Bitcoin’s “max pain” or “fire-sale” bottom lies between BlackRock’s ($84,000) and MicroStrategy’s ($73,000) institutional cost bases.
- The market stress is visible in recent outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, including a record one-day outflow for IBIT, totaling approximately $3.3 billion.
Tough times for the crypto market, as Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies have completely erased this year’s gains, with Bitcoin falling over 30% from its ATH of US$126K (AU$195K) and Ether (ETH) down to US$2.8K (AU$4.3K), or over 40% from its peak.
As reported, the decline started shortly after the Fed released minutes from its October meeting, showing the Fed’s officials split on how quickly to cut interest rates. But the general outlook is that the economy is more exposed to an imminent slowdown, while others warned that inflation is just too far from the 2% target.
So, can it get any worse? Well, according to André Dragosch, Bitwise European head of research, a fire-sale is the only thing that could nuke the market.
Related: US Regulators Greenlight Banks to Hold Crypto for Paying Network Fees
Potential Bitcoin Fire-Sale?
Per Dragosch, Bitcoin’s “max pain” area sits between two key institutional cost bases: BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) at around US$84,000 (AU$126,000) and MicroStrategy’s near US$73,000 (AU$109,500).
He argued that a final cycle low is most likely to form somewhere inside this band, calling it a “fire-sale” zone that would reflect a broad reset in positioning across major market participants.
Think max max pain is reached the moment we tag either the IBIT cost basis at 84k or MSTR cost basis at 73k. Very likely we’ll see a final bottom somewhere in between. But these will be fire sale prices and akin to a full cycle reset imo.
André Dragosch, Bitwise EuropeIBIT’s cost basis represents the average price at which the spot Bitcoin ETF accumulated its holdings. As the market price moves toward that level, Dragosch noted, pressure tends to build on sentiment because holders are pushed closer to breakeven or loss, forcing a reassessment of whether to remain invested or redeem shares.
That stress is already visible in ETF flows. IBIT recently recorded its heaviest one-day outflow to date, with US$523 million (AU$784.5 million) withdrawn on Tuesday. Across all spot Bitcoin ETFs, outflows over the past month have reached roughly US$3.3 billion (AU$4.95 billion), equal to about 3.5% of total assets under management.
Keep in mind Bitcoin is currently trading at US$86,899 (AU$134,759), as per CoinGecko.
Some analysts remain bullish in the long term, like Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, who recently said the price shakeups do “little” to alter the foundations of Bitcoin’s value; that BTC can hold wealth digitally without relying on any centralised institution or government, Hougan said.
Related: Standard Chartered Analyst Says Bitcoin Sell-Off Has Bottomed, Eyes Year-End Rally
Credit: Source link
