Bitcoin’s Future Comes Down To This One Question, Says Bitwise

The US President Donald Trump has formally established a strategic Bitcoin reserve last week—an action that has ignited both celebration and concern across the industry. At the heart of this debate is one central question: Will Bitcoin become a geopolitically important global macro asset like gold, or will it remain a niche holding among libertarians, cypherpunks, and speculators?

That is the core takeaway from Bitwise’s latest investor memo, authored by Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan. Titled “The Only Question That Matters in Bitcoin” and dated March 10, 2025, the memo underscores how the long-term prospects of Bitcoin may hinge on whether governments worldwide—starting with the United States—view it as indispensable enough to keep building strategic reserves.

The One Big Question For Bitcoin

In the memo, Hougan highlights the striking nature of the US government’s decision, writing: “Fifteen years after Bitcoin was created—a decade and a half of ridicule and skepticism, of people calling it a ‘pet rock’ and ‘rat poison squared’—the US government declared Bitcoin a ‘strategic’ asset that ‘shall not be sold.’”

He argues that Bitcoin’s endorsement as a strategic reserve asset signals a historic shift: “It is a historic milestone, which in time will help propel Bitcoin to new all-time highs. Congratulations to all who believed in this possibility before it was cool.”

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Yet, markets have not uniformly welcomed this announcement. While the government’s formal recognition would seem to bolster Bitcoin’s legitimacy, it also disappointed some investors who had expected an immediate influx of new government purchases.

Shortly after the reserve news emerged, Bitcoin’s price plummeted 13% from its recent high of over $92,000, dropping below $80,000 for the first time since November 2024. Hougan points to several contributing factors: broader economic worries, an equity market pullback, and, crucially, what he calls a “misunderstanding” of the government’s actual stance.

“Despite the historic nature of the declaration, Bitcoin is down sharply in recent days,” he notes in the memo. Investors had apparently hoped for immediate large-scale purchases from the US Treasury. Instead, they learned that the reserve would initially comprise the government’s existing Bitcoin holdings—an estimated 200,000 BTC, worth approximately $16 billion at current prices.

Hougan believes the market’s negative reaction is unwarranted, emphasizing that merely retaining those 200,000 Bitcoin instead of selling them—once anticipated under the prior administration—removes a substantial overhang from the market.

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Moreover, the new executive order explicitly states: “[T]he Secretary of the Treasury and the Secretary of Commerce shall develop strategies for acquiring additional Government BTC provided that such strategies are budget neutral and do not impose incremental costs on United States taxpayers.”

In his memo, Hougan underscores the significance of the word “shall,” suggesting it indicates a mandate rather than a mere possibility. Above all, Bitwise’s memo insists on a long-term perspective, urging investors to concentrate on what Hougan terms “the only question that matters in Bitcoin.” That question is whether Bitcoin becomes globally important, akin to gold, or whether it remains peripheral.

“If Bitcoin does matter globally, here’s my view: It will be a $10-50 trillion asset, implying a 5x-25x return from current prices. If it doesn’t, it’ll be a footnote in history, bouncing around below $150,000, supported only by a small cohort of libertarians, cypherpunks, and speculators. There is no in between. Bitcoin either matters globally or it doesn’t,” Hougan writes.

From this vantage point, the US government’s choice to retain (and potentially expand) its Bitcoin holdings represents an enormous signal to other countries. If, as Hougan suggests, nations including Czechia, Russia, China, El Salvador, and India are weighing their own strategic moves in the digital asset space, the US adopting Bitcoin as strategic could spur them to follow suit—especially if they want to front-run any further American acquisitions.

While some investors may be disheartened by the immediate lack of massive government buys, Bitwise’s memo remains optimistic in the face of Bitcoin’s recent volatility. Hougan labels the current price dip as an opportunity for those eyeing a longer timeline. “I see one big takeaway. This short-term weakness is a gift,” he concludes.

At press time, BTC traded at $80,319.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com