- Bitcoin corrected 13% from Tuesday’s local peak of US$107k to US$92,985 on Monday morning, wiping out all gains made in 2025 and returning to year-start levels.
- The Fear and Greed Index plummeted to 10, its lowest level this year, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs witnessed combined outflows of US$1.6 billion over three trading days.
- Analysts note that Bitcoin social dominance surges often precede market reversals, though this isn’t a guaranteed bottom signal according to Santiment.
- Crypto analysts warn the coming week is critical, with some suggesting a weak weekly close by 24 November could confirm a bear market.
Bitcoin and co had a wild weekend, another very volatile couple of days. While last Tuesday marked a local top around the US$107k (AU$164k) mark, the coin has since dropped as low as US$92,985 (AU$142,644) early Monday morning.
That’s a 13% correction in just a couple of days. It also means all gains made in 2025 have been wiped out. The chart below shows BTC’s price at the start of the year pretty much equals where we are right now.
No surprise then that traders are fearful. The Fear and Greed Index dropped to 10 yesterday (its lowest level this year) before slightly recovering to 14 today. It’s only the second time in 2025 that the Index has fallen that low. With fear strongly dominating sentiment, the question is whether anyone is still buying.
Are US Spot Bitcoin ETFs Buying the Dip?
Looking at data from Farside, we can see that a combined US$1.6 billion has left US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) over the last three trading days. The past 13 days only saw three sessions with positive net flows and 10 days of outflows.
Despite the hefty selling pressure, US funds still hold a combined 6.36% of all Bitcoin — and at least one major whale insists he’s not budging, with Michael Saylor reiterating that he’s still buying rather than selling.
Related: Harvard Supercharges Bitcoin Bet With 257% Surge in ETF Holdings
With that in mind, the question is whether buying the dip makes sense here. Analysts at Santiment noted on Crypto Twitter that “probabilities of a market reversal greatly increase when social dominance for Bitcoin surges,” although they cautioned that this is “not a guaranteed crypto bottom signal.”
Analysts Urge Caution, Say Week Ahead Crucial
Meanwhile, former hedge-fund manager and author James Lavish reminded his followers to stay calm and that nothing has changed fundamentally:
Seeing many bad takes on Bitcoin this morning, so perhaps we should return to first principles: Governments will keep overspending, global liquidity will keep expanding, and long-term, Bitcoin will reflect inflation that continues ad infinitum.
James LavishHowever, crypto analyst Titan of Crypto urged traders to stay realistic, arguing that market cycles require nuance and excessive optimism can leave investors exposed near market tops. He currently sees the environment as leaning heavily bearish and said that if Bitcoin’s weekly close doesn’t improve by Nov. 24, “that’s bear market confirmed for me,” stressing that he is simply interpreting the chart rather than trying to be proven right.
Related: Japan Moves to Regulate Crypto as Financial Products in Major FSA Overhaul
Building on that scepticism, Benjamin Cowen noted that Bitcoin just printed a death cross – a signal that has historically coincided with local lows, but one that tends to fail once a cycle truly ends.
He said Bitcoin has roughly a week to bounce before risking another downturn, after which a rally toward the 200-day SMA would likely form a macro lower high.
As Cowen put it:
Trade the market you have, not the market you want.
Benjamin Cowen
Credit: Source link
