Bitcoin Unlikely to Set New All-Time High in 2026 as Bears Retain Control

Analyst Keith Alan predicts Bitcoin will likely drop to retest its $87,500 yearly open as bulls struggle to maintain current support at $92,000.
Market data suggests large traders are positioning for a deeper correction, potentially triggered by a “death cross” on the weekly chart later this month.
A durable recovery above $101,500 is considered unlikely before 2027 unless Bitcoin achieves a daily “golden cross” and stronger weekly momentum.

Bitcoin (BTC) is likely to revisit the 2026 yearly open near US$87,500 (AU$133K) as buyers and sellers fight for control around current support levels, according to Keith Alan, co-founder of trading analytics group Material Indicators.

In an analysis posted Wednesday, Alan said a move back toward US$87,500 (AU$133K) is “not a matter of if, but when.”

He pointed to order-book data from Material Indicators’ FireCharts tool, saying bulls are trying to hold support around US$92,000 (AU$140K), while larger players appear positioned for a deeper support test closer to the yearly open.

FireCharts shows a realtime battle unfolding in the $BTC order book.
Bulls are trying to defend support at the 2026-01-05 Timescape Level, but Whales appear to be looking for a support test closer to the Yearly Open before a Golden Cross forms on the D chart to trigger the next… pic.twitter.com/NNEj23MPeJ
— Material Indicators (@MI_Algos) January 7, 2026

Alan added that a daily-chart “golden cross” (where the 21-day simple moving average crosses above the 50-day) could act as a trigger for the next rally, but only after that lower retest plays out.

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Uncertainty Ahead

Alan said the timing is uncertain. If the dip does not occur within roughly a day, he expects it could follow a weekly-chart “death cross” later in the month, a bearish signal that forms when a shorter-term moving average drops below a longer-term one.

Beyond the near-term setup, Alan said several of his longer-horizon signals remain negative, arguing Bitcoin is unlikely to reach new all-time highs before 2027 unless conditions change.

He described both Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) as being at “critical inflection points,” and said a more durable recovery would likely require stronger weekly momentum, including a weekly RSI above 41 and weekly closes back above the 50-week moving average near US$101,500 (AU$155K).

Bitcoin is currently trading at $90.7K (AU$135.1K) at press time, a decrease of 2.07% in the last 24 hours, as per CoinMarketCap data.