- Bitcoin partially recovered from its earlier crash, reaching USD $45k following intense speculation and activity around Spot Bitcoin ETF applications and their subsequent approval.
- With the Bitcoin halving event approaching in 10,411 blocks speculation is high on whether we’ll see a sustained rally or a significant crash, amidst predictions of a pre-halving rally.
- The upcoming Chinese New Year could influence Bitcoin’s price, historically leading to solid gains.
- Markus Thielen predicts a rise to USD $48,000 during the festival, with a potential increase to USD $52,000 by March.
What a start to the year it has been, with the Spot Bitcoin ETF applications dominating the headlines – the hype was intense. Not to mention the subsequent approval and the following sell-off.
Bitcoin and the broader market subsequently crashed, with BTC going from USD $48,625 (AUD $72,880) on January 12 to USD $38,826 (AUD $58,910) just 12 days later. BTC has now made up some of these losses, trading hands for USD $45.387 (AUD $69,914) at the time of writing.
Bitcoin Halving in 10,411 Blocks
So, is this a sustained rally or will we see a big crash incoming soon?
Of course, it’s anyone’s guess what happens next and nobody can predict the future, but don’t forget we have the Bitcoin halving coming up.
Many traders and analysts have strongly suggested that the time for corrections is over as we enter what some call the pre-halving rally. The halving is expected in April, so not that much time left.
The halving is determined by blocks mined and is not a timed event, meaning it occurs whenever the specific number of blocks mined is reached, i.e. every 210,000 blocks.
The halving block is block 840,000 and we are now at block 829,589, so we are getting fairly close, with Documenting Bitcoin estimating it will happen April 19.
Don’t Forget About the Chinese New Year
Yes, that’s right – the Chinese New Year is just around the corner, and it matters to Bitcoin – or at least so says history.
9 out of the last 10 years Bitcoin gained during the Chinese New Year season, with gains of an average 11%. Even more bullish: the last three years BTC has rallied around the event.
Head of Research at Matrixport, Markus Thielen believes this Chinese New Year we will see a USD $48,000 (AUD $73,558) price tag for BTC.
The next few days are of paramount statistical importance as bitcoin tends to rally by +11% around Chinese New Year, starting on February 10 (Saturday).
Markus ThielenThe analyst believes we could see Bitcoin go to USD $52,000 (AUD $80,000) by March, making the price prediction fall in line with what many analysts forecast.
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