- Bitcoin’s 40% crash has revived bear market fears, with price action mirroring the brutal 2018 and 2022 cycles, though K33 Research dismisses the likelihood of another 80% wipeout.
- $74,000 is the “make-or-break” support level; a decisive break below it could accelerate a slide toward the $58,000 range (the 200-week moving average).
- Bottom signals are emerging as spot volume hit a “90th-percentile” peak of $8 billion on February 2, alongside a massive $1.8 billion flush of long positions in derivatives.
Is Bitcoin’s (BTC) current drop the start of another brutal crypto winter like in 2018 and 2022, or are we experiencing something less severe?
BTC has dropped about 40% from its October high, including an 11% fall last week, and that has people worrying the market is repeating its old four-year boom-and-bust pattern.
K33’s head of research, Vetle Lunde, says the recent move does look similar to 2018 and 2022 in one key way, and that is the price being driven more by fear, positioning, and technicals, not because something fundamental about Bitcoin has broken.
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Is It Really Different This Time?
All in all, Lunde doesn’t think we’re heading for another 80% wipeout. But that doesn’t mean people aren’t scared the old pattern will repeat, so they sell to protect profits, and new buyers wait, which can make the drop worse and look exactly like the old cycles.
Lunde is watching around US$74,000 (AU$106,170) as an important support level. If Bitcoin falls clearly below that, he thinks it could slide to around US$69,000 (AU$98,999) or even closer to US$58,000 (AU$83,216).
Even so, Lunde argues there is “no urgency” for long-term holders to sell and views current prices as reasonable entry points for investors with a multi-year horizon, rather than the start of another 2018- or 2022-style collapse.
With BTC nearing a flat return profile over the past two years, we sense no urgency for long-term holders to sell. We will respond rapidly if the current support breaks, but we do not expect a repeat of 2018 or 2022. Instead, we view current prices as attractive entry levels for any investor with a long-term approach.
Vetle Lunde, K33’s Head of Research.Moreover, Lunde mentioned data points linked to market bottoms are also starting to appear. On 2 February, spot trading volume topped US$8 billion (AU$12.24 billion), placing the day in the 90th percentile as prices retested the 2025 lows.
In derivatives, funding flipped sharply negative and open interest reset lower after roughly US$1.8 billion (AU$2.75 billion) in long positions were liquidated. That combination has often preceded reversals, though not always.
But Lunde cautions that these signals are not confirmation of a floor. Past downtrends have shown similar spikes in volume and liquidations before selling resumed, and the biggest reversals typically arrive with even more extreme, 95th-percentile volume.
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