- Bitcoin neared the US$100k mark last week, raising anticipation for a new all-time high and further gains.
- Raoul Pal predicts Bitcoin could reach US$110k by early 2025, followed by a possible drop below US$70k.
- While BTC did not make the US$100k mark yet, it broke two other records, in terms of ETFs and monthly gains.
Bitcoin is surely building up suspense, hitting a high just under the psychologically important barrier of US$100k (AU$153.8k) last week. Ever since, we have all been waiting for a fresh new all-time high at or above that barrier, with many hoping that from there on we will ride the rocket ship to the moon.
Not the Top, FFS, Says Pal
According to former Goldman Sachs man Raoul Pal and his team at Real Vision, BTC may even hit US$110k (AU$169.2k) in early 2025, sounds great, right?
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Yes, and Pal believes that Bitcoin will go much higher, medium to long term, but in the short term, following that US$110k high, we may see a bit of a correction.
The chart below, from the Global Macro Investor program, shows the GMI total liquidity index, which Bitcoin generally follows.
If the trend indicated by the liquidity index holds, Bitcoin’s right-hand side (RHS) will see its peak around US$110k (AU$169.2k) by January 2025. Following the peak, the chart suggests a decline in Bitcoin’s price to below US$70k (AU$107.7k) by February 2025.
But Pal quickly explained that this is not the cycle top and Bitcoin will go higher – it just represents a buying opportunity if you still believe in the long-term potential of BTC.
Also, it’s a local top, not THE top…FFS.
Raoul PalNovember Record-Breaking Month for BTC
And while Bitcoin has not managed to break through the US$100k in November, the month was remarkable for two reasons. First, the US Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) hit record inflows, and second, BTC saw the largest ever move to the upside.
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The chart below shows that November saw a massive green candle which represents a US$26,400 (AU$40,637) gain, or 37%. That’s the largest gain for BTC in dollar terms, ever.
Meanwhile, the US ETFs took in a whopping US$6.2 billion (AU$9.5 billion) in net flows in November, slightly above the February intake of US$6 billion (AU$9.2 billion). These funds now hold 1.077 million Bitcoin, just 5.129% of the total supply.
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