Bitcoin Rebounds, Then Retreats as Geopolitical Shock Sparks Market Selloff

Bitcoin reached above US$108k but dropped to US$106k by Tuesday morning Australian time, falling nearly 2% over the past week.
Institutional adoption continues strongly with MicroStrategy adding 10,100 more Bitcoin to reach 592,100 BTC total, whilst US spot ETFs saw over US$1 billion inflows last week.
Escalating Israel-Iran conflict has investors concerned about potential market impacts, particularly if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz affecting oil and shipping.
Analysts suggest Bitcoin may be nearing a short-term bottom around US$102k-$103k support levels, though current trading remains dominated by mechanical trades rather than organic buying conviction.

Bitcoin briefly gained momentum, rising above US$108k (AU$165k) last night, but dropped to US$106k (AU$116.8k) in early trading on Tuesday morning Australian time. The coin is now down almost 2 per cent over the past week.

This comes despite ongoing institutional interest as more companies add Bitcoin to their reserve strategy – such as Strategy, Michael Saylor’s firm, which just added another 10,100 Bitcoin to its reserves and now holds 592,100 BTC.

Strategy has acquired 10,100 BTC for ~$1.05 billion at ~$104,080 per bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 19.1% YTD 2025. As of 6/15/2025, we hodl 592,100 $BTC acquired for ~$41.84 billion at ~$70,666 per bitcoin. $MSTR $STRK $STRF $STRD https://t.co/n7q77DmqCY
— Michael Saylor (@saylor) June 16, 2025

And, as reported yesterday, US spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows are also going strong. Last week these funds saw a net inflow of over one billion USD, and even in Monday’s trading session they added US$408.6 million (AU$625.7 million) in a single day.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs now hold 5.7% of all BTC supply, source: BiTBO/Farside

Market Worried About Ongoing Conflict

Although this accumulation is undoubtedly bullish, the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran has investors wondering what might come next. The war could escalate, dragging further countries into it – or Iran could decide to close the Strait of Hormuz, which would significantly disrupt global shipping and deliver a blow to oil prices and trade routes.

Analysts at Bitfinex said that while trader behaviour shows “mounting stress” and aggressive selling, the combination of plunging Net Taker Volume and a “spike in liquidations” resembles capitulation patterns seen before local market bottoms.

Read more: Cautionary Tale: $7M Lost by Crypto Investor Who Bought Discounted Cold Wallet

They noted that this suggests that, although the market is under pressure now, it could be nearing a short-term bottom and potential rebound.

If Bitcoin can hold the $102,000-$103,000 zone, it may suggest that selling pressure is being absorbed and that the market could be primed for recovery—assuming geopolitical risks donʼt intensify further.

Bitfinex

Will This Week Bring a Shift in Dynamics?

Analysts at Bitcoin Vector, a partnership between crypto-veteran Willy Woo and Swissblock, wrote on Crypto Twitter that in the short term, price action is being dictated by mechanical trades and sensitivity to external events rather than organic buying.

As noted in the last Bitcoin Vector:
🔹Macro pressure and liquidation dynamics pushed Bitcoin back into its short-term support zone at $104K–$106K.
🔹Short-term price remain dominated by mechanical liquidations and macro-driven sensitivity. pic.twitter.com/H22MyA65wM
— Bitcoin Vector (@bitcoinvector) June 16, 2025

While Bitcoin’s overall structure remains intact, there’s little evidence of strong spot market conviction, according to their analysis. They highlighted that the asset continues to trade within a tactical range, marked by volatility and reactive flows. They added that the key question now is whether this week will bring a shift in momentum, or if the same range-bound, choppy dynamics will persist.

Will this week mark a shift? Or are we set to see a continuation of the same dynamics—range, whipsaws, and reactive flows?