Bitcoin Price To $160k By Early 2026? Analyst Identifies 2 Conditions For Uptrend

The price of Bitcoin made a dreamy start to the last quarter of the year, beginning the historically bullish month of October with a reclaim of the $120,000 level. After over a month of choppy price action, the world’s largest cryptocurrency seems to be resuming its bullish uptrend.

With the price closing in on its all-time high price above $124,000, investors will be looking to see how far and long the premier cryptocurrency can go in the latest leg up. According to an on-chain analyst on social media platform X, the price of BTC could rise as high as $160,000 in the current run.

Why A Break Above $128k Is Critical To BTC’s Bull Run

In an October 3 post on X, crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. put forward a $160,000 target for the Bitcoin price at the start of next year. According to the online pundit, the sustained progression of BTC’s price action to this unprecedented high hinges on two primary conditions, or two price levels.

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This bullish analysis revolves around the historical price performance of Bitcoin following the halving event. Typically, the halving event is viewed as a catalytic event that triggers long-term price rallies for BTC, as it involves slashing by half the volume of the premier cryptocurrency created at a time.

Source: @AxelAdlerJr on X

As observed in the chart above, the scenario-based model shows through a trend-based forecast that each halving cycle produces an exponentially higher peak for the Bitcoin price. According to this model, the price of BTC printed a post-halving peak around $57,000 following the 2020 event, beating the previous high of $4,250.

Adler Jr. revealed that the Bitcoin price could head for $160,000 after the 2024 halving event, which saw miner rewards fall from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. However, for this rally to be confirmed, the first condition is that the flagship cryptocurrency will need to break above the $128,000 and hold above this “base” level on multiple weekly closes.

In the second condition, the on-chain analyst shared that Bitcoin’s upward movement toward the $160,000 mark could be at risk of invalidation should the price fall below the $102,000 level. According to Adler Jr., a breakdown beneath this level could lead to a quick scenario reset, potentially changing the target or overall trend for the Bitcoin price.

Ultimately, the price action of BTC in the short term is one to look out for, as the market leader looks to reclaim its current all-time high. Moreover, a break above the record-high price could clear the path for Bitcoin to reach the ‘base” level of $128,000.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $122,710, reflecting a 2% jump in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the top cryptocurrency is up by more than 12% in the last seven days.