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The current Bitcoin (BTC) rally could extend until mid-2025, with a potential price peak before a US recession.
Bitcoin Could Peak In Mid-2025 Before US Recession
A recent Copper Research report, a recent crypto research firm, posits that the leading cryptocurrency by market cap could extend its bullish momentum until mid-2025.
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As of November 13, Bitcoin is on day 555 of its current market cycle, and a price peak for the digital asset could arrive within the next 200 days. Notably, this peak may coincide with a potential US recession forecasted for mid-2025.
According to the report, Bitcoin’s market cycles average 756 days. The starting point of these cycles is when the annual average growth of Bitcoin’s market capitalization turns positive, while the endpoint is when it hits a price peak.
The report marks the beginning of the current market cycle around mid-2023, just before asset manager BlackRock filed for a BTC exchange-traded fund (ETF).
Should Bitcoin stay true to its historical price patterns, the digital asset can hit its price peak for this cycle sometime around mid-2025.
The report cites estimates by JPMorgan about the likelihood of a US recession in mid-2025. As a result, BTC’s price peak might align with a potential US economic downturn.
Based on data from Treasury spreads, JPMorgan gives a 45% chance of a potential US recession by mid-2025.
The report further highlights the gap between BTC’s price top and realized volatility. For the uninitiated, realized volatility measures BTC’s price fluctuations over a specific period, showing the standard deviation of the asset’s returns from the market’s mean return.
BTC’s realized volatility currently stands at around 50%, indicating that its volatility is only halfway to previous bull market peaks.
Another bullish technical indicator for the BTC price trajectory is its filtered relative strength index (RSI). The report reads:
Currently, the RSI sits at 60 – well below previous bull market highs – indicating considerable room for Bitcoin to continue building momentum into the new year.
BTC Could Rise Further, But Caution Is Necessary
The digital assets market has been on a strong upward trend since pro-crypto Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 US presidential election.
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Notably, the emerging industry has witnessed its total market cap surge beyond $3 trillion for the first time since November 2021.
The rise in total crypto market cap – largely driven by BTC – is not surprising since the Trump administration is speculated to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve akin to that of El Salvador under Nayib Bukele.
Bitcoin’s unprecedented price action has propelled the digital asset’s total market cap beyond that of silver, solidifying it as the 8th largest global asset by market cap in existence.
With this in mind, it will be interesting to see how BTC dominance (BTC.D) behaves in the coming weeks, especially after facing rejection just below the $90,000 level.
Currently hovering slightly above 60%, a fall in BTC.D could signal a capital rotation from BTC into altcoins, potentially benefiting smaller-cap digital assets.
BTC trades at $87,767 at press time, up 1.1% in the past 24 hours. The asset’s total market cap sits at $1.738 trillion.
Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView.com
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