Bitcoin is currently at a crossroads, caught between bullish hopes and bearish pressure. Bulls are struggling to reclaim the $115K level, while bears have been unable to keep BTC below $110K, leaving the market in a tense state of uncertainty. This indecision comes as volatility increases ahead of the upcoming US Federal Reserve meeting, where investors expect a possible announcement on interest rate cuts. Such a decision could significantly impact risk assets, including Bitcoin, by shaping liquidity conditions in global markets.
Top analyst Axel Adler highlights that as of today, it has been 504 days since the last halving, a milestone that places the market in a mature phase of the bull regime. By comparing the current cycle with the previous two, Adler suggests that Bitcoin is showing characteristics consistent with late-cycle behavior. While this phase often brings heightened volatility and profit-taking, it also underscores the broader strength of the cycle, supported by institutional demand and long-term adoption trends.
Bitcoin Redistribution Patterns Signal A Sustainable Cycle
Adler explains that in this cycle, Bitcoin has displayed a unique redistribution pattern compared to past bull runs. In March, when BTC traded near $70,000, the market witnessed an extreme spike in Value Days Destroyed (VDD), a signal of significant long-term holder (LTH) activity. This was followed by two additional, but more moderate, distribution waves near $98,000 and $117,000. Importantly, these later waves did not surpass the March extremum, suggesting that selling pressure from LTHs has been segmented and less overwhelming than in prior cycles.
This behavior points toward more sustainable redistribution, primarily due to institutional demand. Rather than one explosive top driven by panic or retail frenzy, supply is exiting in batches after each new all-time high. Institutional buyers, ETFs, and corporate treasuries are absorbing this selling, which spreads peaks across a longer period and creates stretched-out cycle dynamics.
Looking ahead, final conclusions about the cycle’s ultimate peak hinge on the emergence of the Peak Flag, a well-established late-cycle signal. The Peak Flag is triggered when the spot price trades at roughly 11 times higher than the LTH realized price. Historically, this ratio indicates that the market price has far outpaced the steadily climbing base cost of long-term holders.
Based on current trajectories, the nearest window for such a setup is October–November 2025. However, this depends on conditions aligning: a surge in major LTH spending, a spike in short-term volatility, and then a gradual fading of that volatility.
Price Testing Short-Term Resistance
Bitcoin is trading at $112,952, staging a rebound after holding above the $110K support zone. The chart shows BTC attempting to build momentum, but clear resistance lies around $114K, in line with the 100-day moving average (green line). A sustained move above this level would be critical to validate further upside.
The 50-day moving average (blue line) is trending downward, currently acting as dynamic resistance and compressing price action. Until BTC reclaims it decisively, momentum remains fragile. On the downside, the 200-day moving average (red line) around $101,900 offers a deeper layer of long-term support, far below current levels.
Structurally, BTC is forming a short-term higher low compared to early September, hinting at stabilization. However, bulls face the challenge of reclaiming lost ground quickly before bears reassert pressure. The broader resistance zone between $115K and $117K will likely determine whether BTC continues its consolidation or mounts a stronger recovery attempt.
Holding above $110K keeps the bullish case intact, but without a breakout over $114K–$115K, Bitcoin risks slipping back into a choppy range. Traders should watch for volume confirmation on any breakout attempt.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
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