- Bitcoin’s 30-day smoothed realised profit average contracted roughly 63%, from above US$1 billion (AU$1.41 billion) to approximately US$370 million (AU$522 million) per day.
- About 57% of Bitcoin supply currently sits in profit, breaching a statistical threshold that historically preceded extended bear markets in May 2022 and November 2018.
- Options markets signal cautious positioning for a relief rally, with the put/call ratio collapsing from 1.89 on Feb. 28 to 0.4 and roughly US$14.5 million (AU$20.4 million) in net call premium building at the US$75,000 strike over the past week.
Bitcoin’s buy-side demand has deteriorated sharply, according to Glassnode, with on-chain data showing weaker profit-taking and supply conditions slipping into levels that have historically marked the start of bear market phases.
Bitcoin has failed to post a daily close above US$70,000 (AU$99K) since early February, leaving prices stuck in consolidation. Overall, Glassnode noted that the 30-day smoothed average of realised profits fell from more than US$1 billion (AU$1.53 billion) per day to about US$370 million (AU$566 million), its weakest reading since August-September 2024.
The metric is used as a proxy for buyer participation and capital inflows.
But another warning sign is the share of Bitcoin supply still in profit. That figure has dropped to 57%, below the -1 standard deviation level near 60% that Glassnode said has historically aligned with early bear market conditions.
The report noted similar breaks in May 2022 and November 2018, both of which were followed by extended downturns. Still, not all indicators point in the same direction.
Glassnode said short-term holders who bought Bitcoin between one week and one month ago have a cost basis near US$70K, making that area an important resistance and distribution zone, and it also identified US$68,500 to US$71,500 (AU$101K) as the key near-term trading range.
Read more: Jamie Dimon Warns Stablecoin Yield Fight Could Threaten US Financial System
US Spot Bitcoin ETFs See Renewed Influx
Similarly, US spot Bitcoin ETF flows have started to stabilise after heavy redemptions.
Since November 2025, the products have seen about US$7.8 billion (AU$11.93 billion) in net outflows, equal to roughly 12% of total ETF assets, but the seven-day moving average has begun to flatten.
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At press time, Bitcoin is trading at $71.2K, a 2% decrease in the past 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
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