- Bitcoin has declined from its early October peak of US$126,198 to US$108,595, with analysts warning it’s trading below key support levels that could trigger prolonged consolidation.
- Long-term holders have been steadily cashing out since July at over 22,000 BTC daily, indicating persistent profit-taking pressure from seasoned investors weakening the market.
- Glassnode notes that open interest reached new highs alongside bearish sentiment, with rising volatility and dealer positioning amplifying downside moves rather than supporting recovery.
- Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz believes Bitcoin reaching US$250k by year-end is unlikely, with a more probable range of US$120k–125k unless regulatory changes or Federal Reserve shifts spark renewed bullish momentum.
Following the crash almost two weeks ago, the crypto market has been relatively volatile. The largest asset, Bitcoin (BTC), fell from its all-time high of US$126,198 (AU$194,561) on 7 October to as low as US$103,736 (AU$159,736).
At the time of writing, BTC trades at US$108,595 (AU$167,422), down just 3% on the monthly chart.
Yet, as Glassnode analysts note, Bitcoin is trading below key short-term support levels, suggesting cooling momentum and growing fatigue among traders. Unless prices reclaim those levels soon, the market could enter a prolonged consolidation phase, they wrote in a recent report.
At the same time, long-term holders have been cashing out steadily since July, selling more than 22,000 BTC per day — a pace of profit-taking that’s adding pressure to the market. “Such persistent distribution indicates profit-taking pressure from seasoned investors, which has been a key factor behind the market’s current fragility,” the analysts said.
Related: Willy Woo Warns Next Crypto Bear Market Could Be the Harshest Yet
They also noted that open interest has reached new highs, while sentiment remains bearish, with traders preferring downside protection. Rising volatility and dealer positioning are amplifying market moves, signalling the end of the recent calm.
On-chain and options indicators point to a cautious, transitional phase, with recovery hinging on renewed spot demand and stabilising volatility. With a cooling market, Glassnode concludes:
Together, these signals indicate a market in transition: one where exuberance has waned, structural risk-taking is subdued, and recovery will likely depend on restoring spot demand and mitigating volatility-driven flows.
GlassnodeBitcoin Year End Goals: Can it Reach New Highs?
So, what about all the forecasts that we have received from crypto analysts that Bitcoin will go to US$500k (AU$770k) or even US$1 million (AU$1.5 million) soon? Well, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz says it would be very difficult for BTC to even reach US$250k (AU$385k) by year-end.
The end of the year is only two and a half months away. There would have to be a heck of a lot of crazy stuff to really get that kind of momentum.
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike NovogratzHe made the comments during an interview with CNBC on Wednesday. The Galaxy CEO added that “nothing fundamental has changed in the crypto story” and that Bitcoin remains on investors’ lists given the ongoing fiat debasement and “government spending more than they should”.
He expects the downside for BTC to be somewhere around US$100k (AU$154k), with the most likely range hovering around US$120k-125k (AU$185k-192k), “unless we take out the top side,” Novogratz concluded.
Related: Arthur Hayes Says Japan’s Stimulus Could Send Bitcoin to $1 Million
He said this could happen if the US greenlights regulatory changes or if President Trump takes action on the Federal Reserve — any potential ousting of Fed Chair Jerome Powell is generally seen as a bullish signal.
