Bitcoin Could Be One Breakout Away From A Structural Shift

Fewer derivative traders are placing new bets on Bitcoin right now. Open interest has barely moved — up just 1.50% to $55 billion — and more futures positions closed than opened in the past 24 hours. Volume dropped 21% to $30 billion. The market is waiting.

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Sellers Have Had The Upper Hand For Over A Year

The waiting may be approaching an end, according to on-chain data firm CryptoQuant. Analyst Moreno published findings showing Bitcoin is nearing a test of two key metrics that have defined its market structure since early 2024.

How it responds to that test, reports indicate, could determine the direction of the next significant move.

At the center of the analysis is the Short-Term Holder MVRV — a metric that measures whether recent buyers are sitting on gains or losses.

Bitcoin Is Close to Flipping the Market Structure

“A sustained reclaim of the Realized Price, paired with the MVRV stabilizing and trending above 1.0, would signal a structural regime change.” – By @MorenoDV_ pic.twitter.com/AsxsyFEyzi

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) May 1, 2026

Since early 2024, it has printed a sequence of lower highs even as Bitcoin’s price climbed to new records. When BTC hit roughly $72,000 in March 2024, the MVRV peaked above 1.4. By November 2024, Bitcoin pushed toward $106,000, but the metric failed to reach its previous high.

The pattern repeated in July 2025, when Bitcoin hit around $120,000 — yet the MVRV continued lower, tracing out a clear descending trendline. That trendline has acted as a ceiling on every bounce since.

The MVRV is now approaching that same ceiling again.

Buyers Need To Reclaim A Key Cost Level

At the same time, Bitcoin is closing in on the Short-Term Holder Realized Price — the average price at which recent buyers acquired their coins.

This level matters because it splits the short-term holder base between profit and loss. When Bitcoin trades below it, recent buyers are underwater and more likely to sell into any rally. When it trades above, selling pressure eases.

According to CryptoQuant’s analysis, a confirmed move above the Realized Price — paired with the MVRV holding above 1.0 — would mark a meaningful change in structure.

It would signal that recent buyers are no longer a consistent drag on price, giving any upward move a stronger foundation. Failure to hold above that level, on the other hand, would leave the existing structure intact.

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US Spot Buyers Are Still Sitting On The Sidelines

Other data points to continued caution. The Coinbase Premium Index — which tracks the price difference between Coinbase and other exchanges, often used as a gauge of US institutional demand — sits at -0.018%.

Negative readings suggest US spot buyers are not driving purchases. Bitcoin has recovered from earlier lows to briefly touch $79,200, but has since pulled back to around $78,300.

Featured image from MetaAI, chart from TradingView