Joerg Hiller
Apr 11, 2025 21:56
Bitcoin faces pressure from weak fundamentals and macroeconomic volatility, with resilience around $80k suggesting a defense by long-term participants, according to Glassnode.
Bitcoin (BTC) remains under significant pressure, with weak fundamentals and macroeconomic instability posing challenges, according to Glassnode. Despite these challenges, the cryptocurrency shows resilience around the $80,000 mark, indicating potential defense by long-term holders.
Market Overview
The Bitcoin market continues to navigate through volatility, as evidenced by a sharp sell-off followed by a rebound to $82,000. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below its statistical low, hinting at a potential breakout from the current consolidation range. The spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) has fallen further to -$167 million, highlighting ongoing sell-side pressure. Although spot trading volume surged past $12 billion, it seems driven by reactive selling rather than new demand.
In the derivatives market, a multi-month downtrend persists, with open interest declining to $33.94 billion. Funding rates have slightly increased to $1.11 million per day. Meanwhile, the Perpetual CVD has dropped sharply to -$594 million, suggesting significant taker-driven sell pressure and liquidations. In the options market, volatility expectations have rebounded, and while open interest remains subdued at $21.77 billion, the volatility spread has turned positive at +0.18. The 25 Delta Skew remains elevated at 0.08, indicating strong hedging activity.
ETF and On-Chain Signals
Exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows have turned negative once more, with a decline of $297 million, although weekly trading volume soared to $22.45 billion amid increased volatility. The ETF Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio slipped to 1.23, slightly below its statistical band, suggesting ETF holders are testing cost basis levels near $80,000.
On-chain fundamentals remain weak, with active addresses and transfer volumes showing little strength, and fee volume declining to $458,000 per day, indicating low blockspace demand. Liquidity inflows remain subdued, with realized cap growth slowing to 0.80% per month. Short-term supply is gradually maturing into long-term holdings, while speculative activity declines, as evidenced by the Hot Capital Share dropping below statistical lows. Profitability metrics are also on a downtrend, with the Percent Supply in Profit at 76%, Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) at 0.45, and the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio at 0.21.
Overall, Bitcoin’s market position is fragile due to weak fundamentals, declining profitability, and soft liquidity, making it susceptible to macroeconomic shocks. Nonetheless, the price resilience around $80,000 may be a constructive signal if broader market conditions stabilize.
For a more detailed analysis, visit the original report on Glassnode.
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