Bitcoin Behaving Differently Than in Past Bull Runs, Bitwise Analyst Says

It has been a very volatile month for the largest cryptocurrency. But despite the ups and downs, Bitcoin has ended up in almost the same spot it was a month ago. Month-on-month BTC has moved just 0.58%, trading at US$83,307 (AU$131,264) at the time of writing.

Of course, that change in price comes after massive swings both up and down – though mostly down, BTC dropped below the US$75k (AU$118k) mark twice in the past weeks.

The Trump tariff-drama was in full swing last week, causing major disruptions not only for crypto. Markets tanked so dramatically that Trump was forced to backpedal on his threats, though he still has his eyes set on China – with analysts and investors waiting to see what’s next.

But, there is something else going on with Bitcoin. At least according to Matt Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer (CIO) at Bitwise.

In a recent letter to investors he wrote that the OG crypto “is acting like an asset that wants to go higher, if only macro obstacles would get out of the way”.

Hougan says all the volatility over the past 30 days and the “time, energy, and angst” he went through, makes him “want to cry”.

Related: US Eyes Bitcoin Reserves Funded by Tariffs and Gold Revaluation, Not Taxpayers

Bitcoin’s Performance a Sign of Resilience, Says Analyst

The CIO explains that at the same time he’s also impressed with the coin, because since the US equity market peaked in February, both stocks and Bitcoin have fallen about 12%, marking the first time Bitcoin hasn’t significantly underperformed stocks during a market correction.

Historically, he says, in downturns like those in 2022, 2020 and 2018, Bitcoin’s losses were much steeper – suggesting this time could be different.

In fact, since bitcoin crossed the $1 mark in 2011, it has never outperformed the stock market during a full-on market correction. This time, I think it stands a chance.

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer (CIO), Bitwise

Hougan admits matching the performance of stocks doesn’t make Bitcoin a hedge and gold has fared better over the past few weeks. Nevertheless, he believes “Bitcoin is looking remarkably resilient right now”.

He suggests that Bitcoin is “growing up”, evidenced by the fact that it’s still holding above the US$80k (AU$126.1k) mark.

If that doesn’t give you confidence in its staying power, I don’t know what will.

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer (CIO), Bitwise

You’re Not a Kid Anymore, Kid.

In past cycles, when BTC was more of a risk asset, it plummeted hard when markets lost confidence and it often lost more than stock markets.

The Bitwise investment head says “as more corporations and institutions are buying bitcoin, and more governments are holding it as a strategic reserve”, Bitcoin shifts from being a risk asset to a hedge asset.

Investors are more and more treating an investment in Bitcoin like one in gold and this leads to “a lower beta to equities in down periods” – meaning BTC isn’t dropping as much as it used to when the stock market goes down.

Nothing’s guaranteed in life, of course, and nobody can say for sure if “this relationship will hold, or that the remarkable strength we’ve seen out of bitcoin lately will project into the future”.

But so far, it’s looking pretty good. Our baby is growing up as a macro asset. And that’s a beautiful thing to see.

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer (CIO), Bitwise

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