Bernstein Predicts $90K Bitcoin with Trump Win, Below $40K if Harris Wins

As the US election approaches D-day, analysts continue to discuss its potential impact on the crypto market.
Financial institution Bernstein, in a note to their clients, predicted a huge “delta” in Bitcoin’s price depending on the campaign winner.
The team believes the crypto market has “warmed” more to Trump than Harris, suggesting a US$50k berth between the two outcomes.
Some argue that, while a Trump win may benefit crypto in the short-term, ultimately the newfound regulatory focus will push BTC to the moon regardless of the president.

Cryptocurrency has become one of the hottest topics in the ongoing US election campaign between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. The former US president Trump in particular has been strong on his pro-crypto stance, dubbing himself the “Crypto president”, releasing multiple NFT collections and promising sweeping digital asset reforms.

This follows previous comments in 2021 (and earlier) where he maligned Bitcoin, labelling it as a “scam against the dollar” – demonstrating the importance crypto will have in shaping the election’s outcome.

And while crypto will be important for the election – the election will also be important for crypto. According to private wealth manager Bernstein, the price variation could be greater than 100%, depending on who takes the victory.

Related: Over 80 Execs Support Kamala Harris, Including Ripple Co-founder, Donors Urge Firing of Gensler

Trump Following Through on Promises Could Push BTC to US$100k

According to Bernstein, the Bitcoin market will rejoice with a Trump election win – predicting a price surge to US$90k (AU$135k) by the end of the year.

This comes on the back of Trump’s significant work trying to woo the crypto community into his corner. The presidential candidate has promised several major regulatory changes if he wins power, including the installation of a new SEC Chair and the introduction of a Federal Bitcoin Reserve. There would likely be new, progressive policy changes too if Trump follows through on his word.

On the flipside, Bernstein has a much more bearish outlook in the event of a Harris victory, predicting BTC could drop below US$50k (AU$75k) to range between US$30k (AU$45k) and US$40k (AU$60k).

Crypto Market Prefers Trump Following Tough Regulatory Environment Enforced by Democrats

While both parties are pro-crypto in one way or another, Trump’s push into the industry has been better received than his opponent’s. There is an air of mistrust around the Democratic policing of crypto, given the past four years have reportedly been tough on several big-name US blockchain companies.

On top of this, Harris’ current policy list doesn’t include anything directly crypto-related, despite several in her campaign discussing pro-blockchain ideologies.

While crypto industry leaders have been more open-minded with the Harris campaign, and are hoping for a more constructive policy, we expect the delta between the two political outcomes to be wide.

Gautum Chhugani, Mahika Sapra and Sanskar Chindalia, leaders at Bernstein

Related: Arthur Hayes Closes Short Position, Expects Explosive Reversal in Bitcoin Price

While the outcome of the US election will likely have a significant medium-term impact on Bitcoin’s price, the reality is both parties have given more attention to digital assets than ever before.

The next term of US presidency will likely shape the industry forever – and to some, it doesn’t matter which party wins. Ultimately, having a political presence at all spells a bullish end to the decade for Bitcoin.