- Barclays predicts a muted 2026 for crypto, with declining spot trading volumes and fading investor engagement pressuring exchanges like Coinbase and Robinhood.
- Event-driven spikes, regulatory clarity via the CLARITY Act, and tokenisation initiatives could influence activity, but near-term growth is expected to remain subdued.
- Coinbase faces headwinds from weaker spot volumes and rising costs, while US regulatory reforms move the sector from uncertainty to clearer frameworks, suggesting a transitional year ahead.
Barclays has warned that cryptocurrency markets are likely to face a subdued environment in 2026, as spot trading volumes decline and investor engagement weakens across major platforms. In a year-end research report published on Friday, the bank outlined a challenging outlook for digital asset exchanges, highlighting uncertainty around what could drive renewed and sustained activity.
Retail-focused exchanges that previously benefited from elevated trading during earlier crypto bull markets are now encountering more muted conditions, according to Barclays. The bank noted that spot trading volumes, which are central to revenue generation for companies such as Coinbase and Robinhood, have cooled significantly. Without a clear catalyst to reverse this trend, Barclays expects trading activity to remain constrained throughout the 2026 financial year.
Crypto markets have historically responded most strongly to discrete events rather than steady growth, the report stated. Barclays pointed to previous bursts of activity linked to the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in March 2024 and the pro-crypto outcome of the US presidential election later that year as examples of short-term momentum rather than lasting structural change.
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Policy Impact on Crypto
Regulatory developments remain a potential influence on future market dynamics, particularly in the United States. Barclays highlighted the proposed CLARITY Act, which seeks to define the boundary between digital commodities and securities and clarify regulatory oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
While the legislation could reduce uncertainty for market participants if passed, the bank cautioned that it is not certain to stimulate immediate increases in trading activity.
Coinbase continues to feature prominently in Barclays’ assessment of the sector. Although the company is pursuing expansion through derivatives, tokenised equity trading and acquisitions, these initiatives are being undertaken amid declining spot volumes and rising operating costs. Reflecting this backdrop, Barclays lowered its price target for Coinbase shares to US$291 (AU$448.14), citing a more conservative earnings outlook.
Tokenisation efforts across the industry, including initiatives involving traditional financial institutions, were described as being at an early stage and unlikely to materially impact earnings in 2026.
This cautious view contrasts with the broader regulatory transformation outlined by Barclays Private Bank, which noted that recent US policy shifts have moved the crypto sector from regulatory uncertainty towards clearer frameworks following years of enforcement-led oversight.
Despite these longer-term regulatory developments, Barclays’ market outlook suggests that near-term trading activity is likely to remain subdued, positioning 2026 as a transitional period rather than a renewed growth phase for crypto markets.
Related: Coinbase Nears $2 Billion Deal for BVNK to Expand Stablecoin Ambitions
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